The Broncos are 6-2, and the AFC race is already looking like a grind where every little edge could matter. That’s why Denver’s Week 2 win over Jacksonville is starting to look a lot bigger than it did at the time.
At the moment, all seven teams in the AFC playoff picture could wind up being the actual playoff field, and six of those seven teams already have one or two losses. The separation at the top is thin, which means the Broncos’ schedule still has plenty of heavyweight tests ahead. They’ve already seen Kansas City and Jacksonville, and they still have Buffalo, Pittsburgh, and New England left.
But the Jaguars are the one result that stands out right now. Denver beat Jacksonville at home in Week 2 after trailing by seven entering the fourth quarter, then scoring 14 points in the final period to pull it out. Since that loss, Jacksonville has gone 5-1 over its last six games, including three blowout wins by at least 23 points.
That run has only sharpened the case for how good the Jaguars are. They also won by 24 points in Week 1 and now rank fourth in scoring offense, second in scoring defense, and own a plus-108 point differential. Trevor Lawrence is on pace for 38 touchdown passes and leads the NFL with a 111.7 passer rating.
There isn’t an obvious weak spot there, which is why Denver’s victory carries so much weight. Jacksonville looks like the favorite to run away with the AFC South for the second straight year, and that would lock in one of the top four seeds in the conference and a home playoff game.
That’s where the Broncos’ win could become a real separator. Denver’s own shot at a second straight AFC West title looks solid, and if both teams win their divisions, that Week 2 result could decide seeding. If the Broncos and Jaguars both finished 13-4, Denver would get the higher seed because of the head-to-head win.
The same thing would apply if Denver won the AFC West at 13-4 and Jacksonville won the AFC South at 12-5. In that case, the Broncos’ victory over the Jaguars would be the difference.
If Denver doesn’t win the division and Jacksonville does, then the head-to-head edge won’t come into play. But with so many strong teams packed into the AFC, the Broncos already have that result tucked away, and it could end up being one of the most important wins on their schedule.
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The Giants remain the most serious suitor for now, even as Indianapolis continues to hold firm on its price. The Colts are believed to be looking for a first-round pick or a package in the neighborhood of the Christian McCaffrey deal, and that asking price has kept the talks from moving very far. For Denver, the question is whether the fit ever becomes worth the cost, or whether the Broncos have already eased off enough to let someone else keep chasing. [Read more 🡒]