Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season ends with an AFC West matchup that has plenty of touchdown potential, as the Kansas City Chiefs host the Denver Broncos on Monday night.
The setup is a little messy on both sides. Kansas City is trying to bounce back from a disappointing 2025 season that got even worse when Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL. Mahomes is back for Week 1, but there’s still a question hanging over him: will he look like his usual MVP-level self against a Denver defense that finished No. 1 in the NFL in success rate and No. 7 in EPA/Play last season?
Denver has its own injury storyline. The Broncos reached the AFC title game last year, but Bo Nix (ankle) was out for that game after he helped push the Broncos past Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills in the divisional round.
With both quarterbacks returning from major injuries, the touchdown scorer market becomes even more interesting. Kenneth Walker III, the reigning Super Bowl MVP, is among the headline names after signing with the Chiefs in the offseason, and he’s one of the three players worth targeting here.
Walker looks positioned for a big workload in a Kansas City offense that needs a true feature back. After spending last year seeing a lot of his goal-line chances taken by Zach Charbonnet, he now has a chance to take on a bigger all-around role in 2026.
Denver was excellent against the run in 2025, finishing second in the league in yards per carry allowed and surrendering only 11 rushing touchdowns. But the Broncos did allow the third-most receiving touchdowns to opposing running backs, which matters for a player like Walker who can hurt defenses in multiple ways.
Given the expanded role he just handled during last season’s playoff run, Walker feels like a strong option even at this number in his Chiefs debut.
Courtland Sutton is another name that stands out, and the price on him looks too generous. He’s listed at +240 to score against Kansas City despite putting together a 1,000-yard season with seven touchdowns in 2025. He also found the end zone in the playoffs for Denver and remains the team’s top red-zone target.
There are reasons to think the Chiefs’ defense could be more vulnerable than it was a year ago. Kansas City made changes in the secondary this offseason, including trading away Trent McDuffie and allowing Jaylen Watson to leave in free agency. That could make it tougher for the Chiefs to repeat their top-12 finish in EPA/Pass from 2025.
Sutton didn’t have any multi-touchdown games last season, but he scored in seven different contests and had a four-catch game against Kansas City. With Bo Nix averaging 36 pass attempts per game in 2025, Sutton’s role in a pass-heavy offense gives him a real path to the end zone.
If Sutton doesn’t cash, Jaylen Waddle is the other Broncos receiver worth a look.
The Denver newcomer is expected to matter right away, and he’s coming off a six-touchdown season even though he dealt with poor quarterback play in Miami. Earlier in his career, Waddle was a reliable 1,000-yard receiver, and he should see plenty of targets in one of the league’s most pass-heavy offenses.
Because both Waddle and Sutton are sitting at +210 or better, there’s a case to back both in this matchup. The rest of Denver’s receiver group is solid, but those two should handle most of the snaps to open the season.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
In Other News...
Justin Simmons Pulled The Broncos Into A Messy NFL Media Debate
Justin Simmons has dragged the Broncos into an awkward NFL media conversation by raising a pointed question about how stories get covered and why some situations draw far more attention than others. Simmons publicly wondered why the focus has landed on Broncos linebacker Jonathan Coopers domestic violence case while what he viewed as a different off-field controversy involving Patriots coach Mike Vrabel and former NFL reporter Dianna Russini has not drawn the same level of scrutiny.
Vrabel was caught up in an offseason mess after photos of him and Russini at an adults-only resort surfaced, an episode that led to Russinis resignation and an internal investigation by The Athletic. The debate now sits in the background of a Patriots team that already has football problems after dropping its Week 1 game to Seattle, with Drake Maye throwing three interceptions, but Simmons comments have made clear that the Broncos are not looking at this as just another league-wide media skirmish. [Read more 🡒]
ESPN Just Reignited An NFL Double Standard Debate Fans Know Well
During ESPNs Monday Night Football broadcast of the Broncos-Chiefs game, sideline reporter Laura Rutledge noted that Denver defender Jonathon Cooper was absent because he had been placed on the commissioners exempt list following domestic violence charges. The mention put a sensitive off-field issue squarely into the middle of a prime-time NFL telecast, and it immediately became more than a routine injury-or-status update for viewers following the Broncos.
Former Broncos safety Justin Simmons took aim at ESPN for bringing Coopers legal situation into the game coverage, and the reaction quickly spread into a wider conversation among former players and fans. The episode has revived a familiar debate about where broadcast reporters should draw the line when a players controversy becomes part of the nights storyline, especially when the game itself is supposed to be the focus. [Read more 🡒]
Patrick Surtain's Blunt Take Sums Up Denver's Early Reality Check
Denvers season opened with a jolt, and not the kind the Broncos were hoping for. An early interception briefly hinted at a fast start, but the offense stalled from there and the loss quickly turned into a reminder that preseason optimism only matters once the games count. Under Sean Payton, the Broncos expected a sharper launch than what showed up in Week 1, making the gap between projections and reality feel especially stark.
Patrick Surtain II didnt sugarcoat it afterward, saying the team needed a serving of humble pie. It was the kind of blunt assessment that tends to land harder because it comes from one of the rosters most respected voices, and it leaves Denver with an early test of response. The talent is there, the expectations remain high, and now the Broncos have to prove this was just a stumble rather than the first sign of a longer adjustment. [Read more 🡒]