The Denver Broncos are rolling-and not just by their own recent standards, but by league-wide ones. As one of only two teams with double-digit wins heading into the final stretch of the regular season, Denver has positioned itself as a serious contender in the AFC. With five games still to play, they’re not just in the playoff picture-they’re staring down the possibility of clinching early and potentially locking up the AFC West crown.
That’s a sentence not many expected to write this late in the season. But here we are.
This year’s NFL landscape has been defined by parity. Upsets are weekly occurrences, and the gap between the top and middle tiers feels narrower than ever.
But even in that chaos, Denver stands out. At this point, only one team in the league is in a better spot, statistically speaking.
And that’s saying something.
The Broncos’ rise has coincided with one of the most surprising developments of the season: the Kansas City Chiefs’ sudden slide. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, the Chiefs now have just a 33% chance to make the playoffs.
That’s not a typo. The defending Super Bowl champs, the team that’s been a perennial powerhouse since Patrick Mahomes took over in 2018, are now on the outside looking in.
Let’s put that into perspective.
Since Mahomes became the starter, the Chiefs have been a fixture in the AFC Championship Game. They’ve won the conference three years running.
Postseason football in Kansas City wasn’t just expected-it felt inevitable. But with a 6-6 record and currently sitting as the No. 10 seed in the AFC, the Chiefs don’t control their own destiny.
Even if they win out, there’s still a scenario where they miss the playoffs entirely.
Meanwhile, the Broncos? They’re sitting pretty with a 99% chance to make the postseason, per the same model. That’s a 66-point swing in Denver’s favor-a staggering shift in a division that’s been under Kansas City’s thumb for years.
So what happened?
For the Chiefs, it’s been a combination of roster regression and some misfires in free agency and the draft. General manager Brett Veach has built some championship-caliber teams, but this year’s group doesn’t look like one of them.
The offense has struggled to find rhythm, and the supporting cast around Mahomes isn’t making life easy for him. At this point in the season, teams are what their records say they are-and Kansas City is a .500 team.
On the flip side, Denver’s resurgence has been fueled by smart roster building and some key hits in the draft. General manager George Paton’s long-term vision is starting to bear fruit.
This isn’t just a team that’s hot-it’s a team with a foundation. The talent level is deep, the coaching staff has the group playing disciplined football, and the Broncos are winning in multiple ways: with defense, with timely offense, and with a belief that they belong among the AFC’s elite.
If this trend continues, we could be witnessing a changing of the guard in the AFC West. For years, Kansas City has been the standard. But Denver’s current trajectory suggests they’re not just ready to challenge that dominance-they might be ready to take the crown outright.
There’s still football left to play, and nothing is clinched yet. But right now, the Broncos are one of the most complete teams in the league. And if the Chiefs can’t find a way to flip the switch fast, they might be watching the playoffs from home for the first time in the Mahomes era.
That’s not just a stat-it’s a seismic shift.