The Broncos’ win over the Seahawks on Thursday night came with a big flashing warning sign in the backfield, and it’s hard to ignore it now: JK Dobbins didn’t give Denver nearly enough.
Dobbins handled 20 total touches in the overtime victory, taking 17 carries and catching 3 passes. He turned that workload into just 46 yards.
RJ Harvey, meanwhile, was far more productive on a much lighter diet, finishing with 56 yards on 9 touches. Tyler Badie added one carry for 6 yards before leaving with an injury.
Strip away Dobbins’ one 16-yard burst, and the night looks even more bleak. On his other 19 touches, he managed only 30 yards.
Nine of Dobbins’ runs went for 1 yard or less, which means more than half of his carries essentially disappeared into the pile. There’s some context here: Ben Powers was getting overwhelmed on run plays when he didn’t pull, and Dobbins was often getting contacted at or behind the line.
But the same Seahawks defense faced the same Denver offensive line, and Harvey still found room. He picked up 25 yards on six carries against that unit.
The split tells the story. Dobbins averaged 2.4 yards per carry. Harvey averaged 4.2.
That’s why the case for a change is growing louder. Giving Harvey most of the carries won’t magically fix a broken Broncos run game, but it would at least give them a better shot at hitting something explosive. Right now, Dobbins is described as a runner with no explosion, limited vision, no ability to break tackles, and not enough speed to turn a crease into a chunk gain.
There’s also the strength of the opponent to consider. Seattle came into the game with the league’s fourth-best run defense by yards per carry allowed.
The Broncos’ only truly soft run-defense matchup so far this season was the Rams, who are 24th. The rest of Denver’s opponents on that front have been among the better units in the league: 1st, 4th, 6th, 8th, and 9th, with Jacksonville, Seattle, Kansas City, San Francisco, and the Chargers.
The next two opponents, as the source notes, are 16th and 32nd in run defense.
Still, the individual numbers around Dobbins are hard to shrug off. An explosive run is defined here as one that gains 12 or more yards, and Dobbins has only 5 of them on 81 carries this season, a rate of 6.2 percent. By comparison, Kenneth Walker has 11 explosive runs on 87 attempts, which comes out to 12.6 percent, and James Cook has 13 on 95 attempts, or 13.7 percent.
The metrics from NFL Next Gen Stats are even harsher. Dobbins is last among qualifying backs in rushing yards over expected per attempt.
He is at minus-0.90 YOE per carry, the worst mark in the NFL among qualifiers. Chase Brown is second-worst at minus-0.70.
No other Denver runner has enough carries to qualify, while Walker leads the category at 2.52.
In Other News...
Broncos Suddenly Face A Brutal Thursday Test In The Secondary
Denver is staring at a quick turnaround with its secondary suddenly in rough shape for Thursday nights game against Seattle. The Broncos are already planning without Patrick Surtain II and Talanoa Hufanga, a pair of important defensive backs whose absence changes the look of the back end just as the team prepares for a Seahawks offense that still has plenty of passing-game firepower.
The concern gets sharper with Riley Moss listed as questionable because of a rib injury, which could leave Denver stretched thin in a key area of the field. Seattle has some injury issues of its own, including linebacker Drake Thomas, linebacker Chazz Surratt and running back Zach Charbonnet, but Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Leonard Williams are expected to play, so the Broncos may still be looking at a demanding test under the prime-time lights. [Read more 🡒]
Broncos Face A Brutal Week 6 Test In The Secondary
Denvers secondary is heading into Week 6 with some real uncertainty as it prepares for Seattle, and the timing is hardly ideal. Patrick Surtain II and Talanoa Hufanga are both out with ankle injuries, while Riley Moss is listed as questionable, leaving the Broncos thinner than usual in a part of the defense that is usually built to travel and match up.
Seattle brings a clear focal point in Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who has become the centerpiece of the passing game and the kind of receiver Denver has to account for on every snap. With the back end shorthanded, the Broncos may have to lean on coverage adjustments and a steadier pass rush to keep the Seahawks from dictating the rhythm of the game. [Read more 🡒]
Broncos Pass Rush Hinges On Jonathon Coopers Uncertain NFL Status
Jonathon Coopers status has become one of the key questions hovering over Denvers pass rush as the outside linebacker remains on the NFL commissioners exempt list while his domestic violence case continues. The league is monitoring the matter under its personal conduct policy, leaving the Broncos in a holding pattern with a player who had been part of their edge-rushing plans and now cannot take the field while the process plays out.
The uncertainty is especially tricky because there is still a path, however unsettled, for Cooper to be back during the middle of the season if circumstances change. For now, though, Denver has to plan without knowing when or whether he will be available, and that lingering unknown could shape how the Broncos manage one of their most important defensive spots for weeks to come. [Read more 🡒]