After a 2025 campaign that saw the Denver Broncos rip off a 14-3 regular season and claim the AFC’s top seed, you’d think Vegas would show a little more love heading into 2026. But according to one major sportsbook, the Broncos sit with just the 12th-best odds to win the Super Bowl next year.
That’s a surprising slot for a team that made it all the way to the AFC Championship Game - and did it without their starting quarterback, Bo Nix. The rookie sensation fractured his ankle in overtime of the Divisional Round against Buffalo, forcing Denver to roll with backup Jarrett Stidham in the conference title game.
And while Stidham did his best in brutal weather conditions, a costly fumble handed New England seven of its 10 points in a tight, snowy battle. It’s hard not to wonder how different that game might’ve looked with Nix under center.
While the oddsmakers might be slow to catch on, the Broncos are getting their due elsewhere. Ralph Vacchiano of FOX Sports released his way-too-early 2026 NFL Power Rankings right after the Seahawks dismantled the Patriots in Super Bowl LX - and he’s got Denver sitting at No. 1.
Vacchiano didn’t mince words: “Let’s be honest: The Patriots don’t get to the Super Bowl if QB Bo Nix doesn’t fracture his ankle one week earlier.” That’s a sentiment that’s been echoed across Denver sports talk all postseason, and it’s hard to argue with. The Broncos were rolling, with a top-tier defense, an offense that had found its rhythm, and a head coach in Sean Payton who looked like he was back in vintage form.
And that’s the thing - this team isn’t going anywhere. Nix is expected to be fully healthy by the time training camp rolls around, and he’ll return to a locker room led by one of the best minds in football. Payton’s pairing with Nix looked like something special before the injury, and with a full offseason to build on that chemistry, the ceiling for this offense could be even higher.
Vacchiano also points to Denver’s physical defense, which was among the league’s most punishing throughout the year. Add in the possibility of another weapon at receiver and a roster that’s now playoff-tested, and you’ve got a team that feels like it’s just getting started.
Rounding out Vacchiano’s top five were the Rams, Seahawks, Patriots, and Eagles - all worthy contenders, but none with quite the same combination of returning talent, coaching stability, and unfinished business that Denver brings into 2026.
As for the rest of the AFC West? The Chargers check in at No. 9, the Chiefs at No. 11, and the Raiders all the way down at No.
- That’s a clear signal: the Broncos have flipped the script in the division.
Kansas City’s long reign at the top may finally be over - and Denver looks ready to take the throne.
So while the betting markets might be sleeping on the Broncos, the football world is wide awake. If Bo Nix comes back healthy, and this team picks up where it left off, they won’t just be in the mix - they might be the team to beat.