AFC West Rundown After Week 16: Broncos Stumble, Chargers Surge, and the Division Tightens
For the first time since September, the Denver Broncos walked off the field with a loss. A three-month win streak in the NFL is no small feat, and while that stretch reminded fans of what this team is capable of, Sunday’s collapse at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars was a sobering reality check.
The game was competitive early, but things unraveled fast in the second half. The defense, which had been the backbone of the Broncos’ resurgence, fell apart.
The offense couldn’t keep up. Special teams didn’t offer much help either.
It was a total breakdown across all three phases - and just like that, the Broncos’ stranglehold on the AFC West has loosened.
Let’s take a look around the division after Week 16, with two games left in the regular season and the playoff picture still very much in flux.
4. Kansas City Chiefs: Down to the Bare Bones
The Chiefs are still technically ahead of the Raiders in the standings, but that’s about where the good news ends for Kansas City. They’re now on their third-string quarterback after Gardner Minshew went down with a tough knee injury, and the injury bug hasn’t stopped there. Several key players have landed on IR, and the roster is starting to look more like a preseason lineup than a playoff contender.
Kansas City just got steamrolled by the Titans on the road, and the team that will take the field on Christmas Day against Denver is a far cry from the one that opened the season. There are still some familiar names out there, but the depth is gone, the rhythm is off, and the Chiefs look like a team simply trying to make it to the finish line.
3. Las Vegas Raiders: A Gritty Loss, But a Loss Nonetheless
The Raiders are sitting at 2-13, and while the record says they’re at the bottom of the barrel, Sunday’s narrow 23-21 loss to the Texans showed they’re not going quietly. Las Vegas pushed Houston to the brink in a surprisingly competitive game, and the offense showed real flashes - especially from Ashton Jeanty, who was electric.
Jeanty racked up 188 total yards and scored twice, putting the Texans’ defense on its heels all afternoon. The game turned on a pick-six thrown by Geno Smith, giving Houston just enough breathing room to escape with the win. But if you’re looking for bright spots in a tough season for the Raiders, Jeanty’s performance is at the top of the list.
2. Los Angeles Chargers: Heating Up at the Right Time
Going up against Dallas’ defense isn’t exactly a fair barometer - that unit has been lights-out all year - but the Chargers didn’t flinch. In fact, they looked sharper on offense than they have in weeks. This was the kind of performance that makes you remember why this team was considered dangerous heading into the season.
Justin Herbert, fresh off hand surgery, looked locked in. He was decisive, accurate, and in full command of the offense.
The Chargers have been scrappy all year - they’ve won tight games, they’ve won ugly, and now they’re starting to win with style again. They’re starting to resemble the Broncos in more ways than one: resilient, balanced, and dangerous when clicking.
If Denver plays the Chargers in Week 18 the way they just played against Jacksonville, they could be handing over the division crown. It’s that simple.
1. Denver Broncos: A Wake-Up Call at Mile High
Sunday’s loss doesn’t erase what the Broncos have accomplished over the last three months. This team has battled through adversity, found ways to win in all kinds of situations, and reestablished itself as a legitimate contender. But the cracks that showed against Jacksonville can’t be ignored - especially on defense.
There’s a pattern here that’s becoming hard to overlook. Under Vance Joseph, the Broncos’ defenses have had a tendency to fade late in the season.
In 2023, they gave up nearly 23 points per game in December and January, including a couple of blowout losses. In 2024, things got worse - 28 points per game allowed after the bye week.
And now in 2025, starting with the November 30 game against Washington, they’re allowing 25.8 points per contest.
That’s not championship football.
The Broncos still control their own destiny. But if they want to make a deep playoff run - or even hold onto the AFC West lead - the defense has to tighten up, and fast.
The offense can only carry so much of the load. Denver has shown it can be one of the most complete teams in the league.
Now it’s about rediscovering that balance before it’s too late.
Bottom Line:
The AFC West is still Denver’s to lose, but the margin for error has shrunk.
The Chargers are surging. The Raiders are playing spoiler.
And the Chiefs, while battered, are still hanging around. With two weeks left, buckle up - this division isn’t done delivering drama.