The Denver Broncos’ ground game has hit a wall - and the numbers show just how much the loss of J.K. Dobbins has stung.
In the two games since Dobbins went down, Denver has struggled mightily to establish any rhythm on the ground, averaging just 3.4 yards per carry. That figure would rank dead last across the league if stretched over a full season. And while the Broncos weren’t exactly facing elite run defenses - they were up against the 17th and 27th ranked units - the production just hasn’t been there.
Let’s put that in perspective: Dobbins was averaging 5.0 yards per carry before the injury and had a run success rate of 53.6%. That’s elite territory.
For context, a successful run is defined as gaining at least 40% of the required yards on first down, 60% on second, and 100% on third or fourth. Dobbins was consistently keeping the offense on schedule.
Now? Not so much.
The Drop-Off Behind Dobbins
RJ Harvey, who’s taken over the bulk of the carries, is averaging just 3.8 yards per attempt with a 39.2% success rate. Jaleel McLaughlin has fared even worse at 3.3 yards per carry, though his success rate is slightly higher at 46.2%. Still, neither back has come close to replicating Dobbins’ efficiency or explosiveness.
The biggest issue has been the Broncos’ inability to get anything going on first down, a down where Dobbins thrived. In the first 10 games with Dobbins in the lineup, Denver was averaging a healthy 5.5 yards per carry on first down.
In the two games since? Just 2.8 yards against Kansas City and 3.5 against Washington.
That 2.8 mark was the worst first-down rushing output the Broncos have posted all season.
And when you're constantly facing 2nd and long or 3rd and long, the playbook shrinks and the pressure mounts - especially on a young quarterback like Bo Nix.
Breaking Down the Tape
Looking at the play-by-play, the struggles are clear. Against the Chiefs, Harvey had three carries that went for negative yardage, and McLaughlin had one of his own. There were a few flashes - like McLaughlin’s 5-yard gain around the edge or Harvey’s late-game 5-yard burst up the middle - but those were exceptions, not the rule.
Against Washington, Harvey opened with an 11-yard run up the gut, but followed it up with a string of short gains and a brutal -4 yard loss. McLaughlin did break off a 14-yard run in the fourth quarter, but by then the damage was done.
Out of 25 first-down rushes over the last two games, only 10 were deemed successful - and two of those came from a Bo Nix scramble and a Marvin Mims jet sweep. That’s a 40% success rate, and it drops even lower if you isolate just the running backs.
What’s Going Wrong?
Part of the issue is stylistic. Harvey, coming out of college, was used to bouncing runs outside - a move that worked against the likes of FIU and Memphis.
But in the NFL, those lanes close quickly, and defenses punish indecision. Harvey’s hesitance to follow his blockers and take what’s given has cost him - and the offense - valuable yards.
Another major factor: contact balance. Dobbins was a nightmare to bring down with just an arm tackle, racking up nine broken tackles before his injury.
Harvey and McLaughlin? Zero.
That lack of physicality shows up in the yards after contact per attempt (YAC/att). Dobbins was averaging 2.4 YAC - among the best in the league.
Harvey is at 1.9. McLaughlin, just 1.4.
For comparison, Tyler Badie has a 3.0 mark - but on only two carries, so it’s far from a reliable sample.
The Line Is Doing Its Job
This isn’t on the offensive line. Denver’s run blocking has actually been solid.
The holes are there - but they’re not being hit decisively or with enough force to turn 4-yard gains into 8-yard chunk plays. And at altitude, where defenses wear down in the second half, that’s a missed opportunity.
The Broncos don’t need Harvey or McLaughlin to be Dobbins. But they do need them to be more efficient, more decisive, and more physical.
Trust the scheme. Hit the hole.
Take the 4 yards. That’s how drives stay alive.
That’s how you avoid 3rd-and-long. And that’s how you give a rookie quarterback a real chance to succeed.
Until then, the run game will continue to sputter - and the offense will feel it.