The Denver Broncos have flipped the script in 2025, and it’s not just a midseason hot streak-it’s a full-on transformation. After a gut-punching 1-2 start that included two last-second losses, Denver has rattled off 11 straight wins.
That’s not a typo. Eleven in a row.
They haven’t lost a game since September, and now, with Week 16 on deck, they’re staring down the possibility of locking up the AFC West and the No. 1 seed in the conference-something the franchise hasn’t done since their Super Bowl-winning 2015 season.
So, what’s behind this remarkable run? One major factor: Denver’s clutch gene has kicked in, especially when the pressure’s highest.
This team has become elite in one-score games, a complete 180 from where they were a season ago. Back then, they couldn’t close.
Now, they’re thriving when it matters most-late in games, tight on the scoreboard, and with everything on the line.
And that brings us to a stat that paints the picture perfectly: fourth quarter point differential.
Heading into their Week 16 showdown with the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Broncos boast a fourth quarter point differential of +54. That’s the second-best mark in the entire NFL, trailing only the Houston Texans.
Meanwhile, Jacksonville sits at -27 in the same category-seventh-worst in the league. That’s a 81-point swing between two playoff hopefuls, and it’s not just a number.
It’s a reflection of how these teams finish games.
The Broncos, under the steady hand of Sean Payton, have become a team that knows how to close. Last season’s growing pains in tight games have clearly paid off.
They’ve been there, taken their lumps, and come out stronger. That kind of experience matters in the NFL, especially in December and January.
Add in a coaching staff that knows how to manage the clock, make adjustments, and keep players calm under fire, and you’ve got a team built for the postseason.
Jacksonville, on the other hand, is still figuring that part out. They’ve been solid in one-score games this year (5-3), but the negative fourth quarter differential suggests they’re not finishing with the same authority.
It’s not a knock-it’s part of the learning curve. In many ways, this year’s Jaguars resemble last year’s Broncos: talented, competitive, but still building the mental toughness that comes from consistently surviving those late-game battles.
And let’s not overlook the setting. This game’s in Denver.
The altitude, the crowd, the momentum-it all tilts in the Broncos’ favor. When you combine that with their fourth quarter dominance, it’s a recipe that could cause problems for Jacksonville down the stretch.
To be clear, nothing’s guaranteed in the NFL. But if you’re looking for a stat that could swing Week 16, this is it.
Fourth quarter performance isn’t just a footnote-it’s often the difference between contenders and pretenders. And right now, Denver’s looking very much like the former.