NFL Conference Championship Odds Shift After Bo Nix Injury: Broncos Now Underdogs, Seahawks Hold Super Bowl Edge
The road to Super Bowl 60 just took a sharp turn-especially in the AFC. The Denver Broncos, once the top seed and a rising favorite to make a title run, are now facing long odds after losing rookie quarterback Bo Nix to a season-ending ankle injury.
Nix, who helped guide the Broncos to a 15-3 record, suffered a broken bone in his ankle during Denver’s dramatic 33-30 overtime win over the Buffalo Bills in the Divisional Round. He’ll need surgery, and that changes everything.
Before the injury, Denver was sitting pretty at +650 to win it all-third-best odds overall and the top AFC contender. Now?
The Broncos are priced at +1100, trailing the NFC’s top two teams: the Seattle Seahawks (+145) and the Los Angeles Rams (+230). The New England Patriots, who will face Denver in Sunday’s AFC Championship, have surged to +250 and are now the clear betting favorite from the AFC.
Let’s break down how the lines have shifted and what to expect in each conference title matchup.
AFC Championship: Patriots at Broncos
**Sunday, 3 p.m.
ET on CBS and Paramount+**
Current Line: Patriots -4.5 | Total: 42.5 | Moneyline: NE -251, DEN +206
This game was shaping up to be a tight one. In early projections, Denver was a slight 1.5-point favorite at home.
But with Nix out and Jarrett Stidham stepping in, the line has flipped hard in New England’s favor. The Patriots are now 4.5-point road favorites, and the total sits at 42.5 in what’s expected to be a defensive battle.
Stidham, a sixth-year pro with just four career starts, now carries the weight of a franchise that’s been riding high all season. The Broncos will need to lean heavily on their run game and defense to keep their Super Bowl hopes alive.
The ground attack, fortunately, has some bite. Rookie RJ Harvey has been a revelation, racking up 896 total yards and 12 touchdowns.
Veteran J.K. Dobbins, who’s been limited in practice but trending upward after a long IR stint, could provide a boost if he’s able to suit up.
But the real engine of this Broncos team has been the defense. Denver led the league with 68 sacks in the regular season-averaging four per game-and they’ve been relentless in disrupting opposing quarterbacks. That pressure will be crucial against Patriots rookie QB Drake Maye, who’s been sensational but hasn’t faced a pass rush quite like this.
New England, though, brings its own set of strengths. The Pats finished fifth in run defense, allowing just 101.7 yards per game, and they boast the second-highest scoring offense in the league at 28.8 points per game. It’s a classic strength-on-strength matchup: Denver’s elite defense (third in scoring at 18.3 points allowed per game) versus a high-octane Patriots offense.
The crowd at Mile High will be loud, and the Broncos will need every decibel of support. According to simulation models, Denver is covering the spread in 58% of outcomes and even winning outright 46% of the time. At +204 on the moneyline, the value is there for bettors willing to ride with the underdog.
Public money, however, is pouring in on New England. About 75% of spread bets at DraftKings are on the Patriots, which has helped push the line to its current number. The total has ticked up slightly as well, with bettors expecting more scoring opportunities for Maye and the Pats against a Stidham-led offense that may struggle to sustain drives.
NFC Championship: Rams at Seahawks
**Sunday, 6:30 p.m.
ET on FOX**
Current Line: Seahawks -2.5 | Total: 46.5 | Moneyline: SEA -154, LAR +129
This one has all the makings of a heavyweight showdown. The NFC West rivals will meet for the third time this season, with the winner likely heading into Super Bowl 60 as the betting favorite.
Seattle, the No. 1 seed in the NFC, holds a slight edge as 2.5-point favorites at home. The two teams split their regular-season meetings, with each side winning on its own turf. The Seahawks took the game in Seattle, while the Rams came out on top in L.A.-thanks in part to a missed 61-yard field goal attempt by Seattle that could’ve flipped the result.
Turnovers have been a key storyline in this matchup. Seattle turned the ball over seven times across the two meetings, yet still managed to win one and nearly steal the other. If they can clean that up, the Seahawks have the firepower and defense to take control.
Offensively, both teams can light it up. The Rams led the NFL in scoring during the regular season at 30.5 points per game, while Seattle wasn’t far behind at 28.4 (third overall).
The Seahawks’ defense, however, has been the difference-maker-they allowed a league-low 17.2 points per game. The Rams were solid as well, ranking 10th at 20.4.
Yardage-wise, Seattle has been consistent. They posted over 400 yards of offense in both meetings-415 at home and 414 in L.A.
The Rams, meanwhile, had just 249 yards in their win but exploded for 581 in the OT loss. So, while the outcomes have been close, the offensive production has swung wildly.
The betting market is leaning heavily toward Seattle. The Seahawks are covering in 58% of simulation models and are getting 83% of spread bets and 91% of the handle at DraftKings. The total has dropped slightly from 47.5 to 46.5, with projections pointing to a 46-point game-just under the current line.
What’s Next
With Bo Nix sidelined, the AFC Championship has become New England’s to lose-at least according to the sportsbooks. But Denver still has the pieces to make this a fight, especially if their defense shows up the way it has all year. Over in the NFC, the Seahawks and Rams are set to deliver another classic, and the winner could easily be hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in a few weeks.
One thing’s for sure: championship weekend is loaded with storylines, and the margins are razor thin. Buckle up.