The Denver Broncos have flipped the script on the 2025 NFL season, and they’ve done it with authority. What once felt like a longshot is now a reality: not only are the Broncos in control of their playoff destiny, but they’ve also taken a firm grip on the AFC West. With a commanding lead in the division, Sean Payton’s crew could lock up the West before even seeing the Chargers again in Week 18.
Let’s be clear - this isn’t a fluke. Denver has earned every bit of this position.
From top to bottom, the team has been locked in. Payton’s influence is showing up in all the right places: disciplined football, smart game management, and a team that’s peaking at the right time.
Now, with the division seemingly within reach, the Broncos are setting their sights even higher - the AFC’s No. 1 seed. And with the Colts slipping in the AFC South, this race is suddenly a two-horse sprint between Denver and New England.
Here’s where it gets interesting.
The Patriots came into the week holding the top seed, but they were on a bye after a win over the Giants. That left the door open for Denver, and the Broncos didn’t waste the opportunity.
Their win over the Raiders not only added another tally in the win column - it clinched the common opponent tiebreaker over New England. That Week 1 Patriots loss to the Raiders?
It’s looming large now. Denver went a perfect 6-0 against their shared opponents, while New England dropped one - and that’s all it took for the Broncos to seize the advantage.
So here we are: four games to go, and the Broncos have the inside track to the AFC’s top seed. But the road ahead is anything but smooth.
Denver faces the third-toughest remaining schedule in the league. Meanwhile, the Patriots’ final stretch is far more forgiving, though they do have a home matchup with the Bills still on the docket. That contrast in strength of schedule could be the deciding factor in who gets to sit at home on Wild Card weekend.
For Denver, the math is simple - but the execution won’t be. If they can notch at least three wins in their final four games, they’ll be in a strong position to claim that coveted first-round bye. There’s even a scenario where the division is wrapped up before their Week 18 clash with the Chargers, which would turn that game into a battle for the top seed rather than just divisional pride.
And that’s where the chess match begins. If Denver has the West locked up but still needs a win to secure the No. 1 seed, all eyes will be on Sean Payton.
Does he rest starters? Does he go all-in?
That’s a decision that could shape the entire AFC playoff picture.
But before the Broncos get there, they’ve got business to handle - starting with the Packers next week. It’s another chance for Denver to prove they’re not just a good story - they’re a legitimate contender.
The Patriots may have the easier path on paper, but the Broncos control the steering wheel. If they keep their foot on the gas, the road to the Super Bowl could run through Mile High.