Thursday night’s Week 6 matchup brings together two teams that reached their conference championship games in the 2025 campaign, but they arrive in very different spots.
The defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks head to Denver looking to strengthen their grip in the NFC West, while the Broncos try to rebound after a season in which they fell to the New England Patriots in the AFC title game without Bo Nix. Both teams are 3-2 after five weeks, though Seattle has a couple of results it would like back - the loss to Washington and the turnover-filled Week 5 defeat against San Francisco.
Even with those stumbles, Seattle comes into this one laying 2.5 points on the road. That’s a sign of respect, and it makes sense given the way the Seahawks are playing on both sides of the ball. Denver’s offense has been a bottom-10 unit this season, and even with Sean Payton taking over the playcalling in Week 5, the attack didn’t fully wake up in the comeback win over the Los Angeles Chargers until the fourth quarter.
That’s a shaky setup against a Seattle defense that ranks No. 2 in EPA/Play. And on the other side, the Seahawks’ offense has a clear centerpiece right now in Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who keeps stacking monster stat lines.
In Week 5, he caught five passes for 102 yards and a touchdown. Through five weeks, he’s up to 603 receiving yards and seven touchdowns, and he has cleared 100 yards in all but one game this season.
The matchup could get even better for him if Denver’s secondary remains shorthanded. Starting cornerbacks Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss both missed Week 5, and star safety Talanoa Hufanga was injured in the win over the Chargers. If those three can’t go on Thursday, Smith-Njigba looks poised to have another huge night.
That’s part of why Seattle feels like the stronger side here, even on a short week. The Broncos did show they can be tough at home, going 2-0 against the spread this season, but the combination of injuries and a sputtering offense is hard to ignore. Denver also ranks 24th in EPA/Play on offense, and against an elite Seattle defense, this could end up looking more like its Week 1 showing against Kansas City than the late rally against the Chargers.
Seattle’s road profile adds another layer. Under Mike Macdonald, the Seahawks have covered 13 of 19 road games, and that road comfort makes the points less appealing. The pick here is to back the defending champs to win outright and pass on the spread.
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In Other News...
Bo Nix Has Become The Broncos Biggest Offensive Concern
Bo Nixs uneven start has become one of the more important subplots inside Denvers 3-2 opening, because the Broncos have managed to stay afloat even as the offense has searched for a steadier rhythm. Coming off the injury that ended his previous playoff run, Nix has not looked quite like the same confident quarterback, and the early weeks have shown a version of Denvers offense that has been more hesitant than explosive.
The issue has shown up in more than one way, from Nix pulling back on downfield throws to a ground game that has not given the Broncos the kind of added dimension they had before. Sean Payton has made it clear he wants the quarterback to play with more conviction, and the next stretch figures to say a lot about whether Denver can get Nix back to the aggressive style that once made the offense feel far more dangerous. [Read more 🡒]
Sean Payton Just Turned Bo Nix Into A Bigger Broncos Debate
The Broncos left Week 5 at 3-2 after a strong fourth quarter helped carry them to a win, but the mood around the offense still feels unfinished. Sean Payton has liked enough to keep this group moving in the right direction, yet the conversation around Bo Nix keeps circling back to how much more there is for the passing game to unlock.
Payton wants the rookie quarterback to be more aggressive pushing the ball downfield, and that idea lands right in the middle of the biggest debate around Denvers offense. Nix has shown the ability to keep drives afloat, but his tendency to settle for safer throws has some wondering whether the Broncos can become truly explosive unless he starts testing deeper coverage more often. [Read more 🡒]
Broncos Escaped The Chargers But Their Offense Looks Like A Real Problem
Denver escaped with a 23-17 win over the Chargers, and the defense did the heavy lifting from start to finish. The Broncos kept Justin Herbert under control, bottled up Los Angeles on the ground and flipped the game with a turnover sequence that set up short fields and kept Denver in front despite an offense that spent too much of the afternoon going nowhere.
The part that should linger for Sean Payton and the Broncos is how little they did with the chances handed to them. Even after repeatedly getting the ball in favorable territory late, Denver managed only 13 points on four fourth-quarter possessions that began inside the Chargers 40-yard line or at the 41, and there were still multiple three-and-outs mixed into a day that should have looked cleaner. A win is a win, especially in division play, but this one left the feeling that the margin for error on offense is thinner than it ought to be. [Read more 🡒]