In NFL playoff history, the quarterback carousel rarely spins this late in the postseason - and when it does, the results haven’t been kind. Only six teams have ever started one quarterback in the Divisional Round and then turned to a different signal-caller in the Conference Championship. The 2025 Denver Broncos just became the latest to join that exclusive and, frankly, ominous list.
The group includes the 1972 Cowboys, 1975 Rams, 1979 Oilers, 1988 Bears, 1992 Bills, and now, the Broncos. Of those first five teams, only one - the ‘92 Buffalo Bills - managed to win their Championship game after making the mid-playoff QB switch.
That win came courtesy of the Jim Kelly-Frank Reich duo, and it stands alone in a sea of four losses. That’s a 1-4 record for teams making a quarterback change this deep into January.
Now it’s Denver’s turn to try and beat the odds with Jarrett Stidham under center.
Stidham, who hasn’t started a game in three years, is stepping into the biggest moment of his career, tasked with taking down a red-hot New England Patriots defense that’s been nothing short of dominant this postseason. Just ask CJ Stroud and Justin Herbert - both of whom were stifled and frustrated by a Patriots unit that’s peaking at the right time.
Former NFL quarterback Dan Orlovsky weighed in on NFL Live, and he didn’t mince words when asked if Stidham can reverse the trend and lead Denver to the Super Bowl. His answer? A firm no.
“I think that trend continues for the backup quarterbacks,” Orlovsky said. “We've watched this Patriots defense really minimize two good quarterbacks in the last two weeks of the playoffs - CJ Stroud and Justin Herbert - and candidly make them look terrible.”
"This is the first time this guy's going to be playing in three years, I think that trend continues."@danorlovsky7 believes history will repeat itself with the Denver Broncos' backup quarterback ✍️ pic.twitter.com/Ehg2gzvsTn
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) January 23, 2026
He gave credit where it’s due: Sean Payton is one of the best offensive minds in the game, and Denver’s offense, when humming, can be dangerous. But Orlovsky pointed to the long layoff for Stidham - not having started in three years - as a major red flag heading into a matchup with a defense that’s been punishing quarterbacks who are far more seasoned.
“This is a good offense in Denver,” Orlovsky continued. “But it’s the first time this guy’s going to be playing in three years. I think that trend continues.”
Of course, Nick Foles - no stranger to playoff magic himself - reminded everyone that the Patriots have been on the wrong side of a backup quarterback story before. His own Super Bowl win with the Eagles in 2018 came at the expense of Tom Brady, Bill Belichick, and a heavily favored New England squad.
But let’s be clear: this current Patriots team isn’t that same group. And unless Jarrett Stidham has been hiding franchise-level talent behind a clipboard for the last three seasons, it’s tough to envision him toppling his former team in a game of this magnitude.
Denver’s betting on the rarest of playoff stories - a backup quarterback stepping in cold and delivering a Super Bowl berth. History says it’s unlikely. But as the Patriots themselves know all too well, sometimes history gets rewritten in January.