The Broncos have put themselves in a decent spot at 5-2, but the next month will say a lot more about what kind of team they really are. They’re one game behind in the AFC West after seven weeks, and while the wins haven’t always come cleanly, Denver has still managed to get them against some strong opponents even with important pieces missing.
Advanced metrics paint a fairly clear picture of where the Broncos stand. Using DVOA, the statistic created by Aaron Schatz, Denver comes in 11th overall at 12.2%. That’s a solid number, the kind that fits a team sitting in that “good but not great” lane.
The offense is still the piece that lags behind. Denver ranks 16th at -2.6%, which is probably best described as below average, even if there were encouraging signs in last week’s game against the Arizona Cardinals.
The defense, on the other hand, has carried its weight. The Broncos are fifth at -11.7%, a strong showing even if it doesn’t quite reach elite status.
Special teams has also held up well, with Denver sitting sixth at 3%.
A look around the AFC West and beyond helps sharpen the picture. The Chiefs are eighth overall at 15.4%, with the league’s fourth-ranked offense at 18.7%, a 14th-ranked defense at -0.4%, and a special teams unit that ranks 29th at -3.8%. Kansas City’s offense is still the driver, but the defense is just solid and special teams has been a problem, especially with kicker Harrison Butker's struggles.
The Panthers have been steadier than many might think. They’re 13th overall at 7%, with a 12th-ranked offense at 5.2%, a 15th-ranked defense at 0.3%, and special teams at 10th with 2.1%. That makes them a solid team in the aggregate, though the defense looks below average and they are clearly not as strong as Kansas City.
The Raiders have taken a step backward. They sit 27th overall at -17.2%, with an 18th-ranked offense at -3.8%, a 28th-ranked defense at 13.8%, and special teams at 15th with 0.3%. Their defense has been especially rough, which leaves the offense little excuse not to produce.
Then there’s the Steelers, who look tougher than many expected before the season. They are ninth overall at 9.2%, 13th on offense at 4.3%, seventh on defense at -11.7%, and 21st on special teams at -0.9%. With that defense and a solid offense, Pittsburgh shapes up as a difficult road matchup.
So the Broncos’ next four games are not a cakewalk, but they do look different from the first four weeks of the season. Kansas City and Pittsburgh both bring quality, and Carolina has proven it can be a real test, too. If Denver can go 3-1 in this stretch, that would leave the team in good shape.
The key is the offense. In the next three games, Denver will face defenses that do not rank in the top 10, and that gives the unit a chance to do more.
The defense has already been a major reason the Broncos are 5-2, and even with injuries, it has started to come together. The hope now is that it won’t have to shoulder quite so much of the load going forward.
Sunday’s game at Mile High against the Chiefs carries obvious weight. A win there would do plenty to help Denver’s chances in the AFC West and in a deeper playoff push.
In Other News...
Vance Joseph Is Forcing A Big Broncos Question Again
Vance Joseph has done enough in his second act in Denver to make people around the league look at him differently than they did a few years ago. After a rough two-year run as the Broncos head coach ended with an 11-21 record, he rebuilt his stock as Arizonas defensive coordinator and then came back under Sean Payton, where Denvers defense has been among the NFLs most reliable units in the past two seasons.
The Broncos have finished near the top of the league in points allowed again, with Josephs group also standing out in rushing defense and total yards allowed. That kind of production inevitably brings back the old question: whether Joseph is once again positioning himself for another shot at running a team, especially after he drew interest around the coaching carousel last offseason. [Read more 🡒]
Sean Payton Just Framed What Broncos Fans Should Expect On Offense
Sean Payton spent the week sketching out what the Broncos want their offense to look like, and it does not appear to revolve around turning Bo Nix into a bigger part of the run game. The head coach made clear that, for now, getting more quarterback carries is not among the immediate items on his list, which offers a pretty good window into how Denver is thinking about balance and durability as it shapes the attack.
There was a more encouraging note for one backfield piece, though, as Payton said Jonah Coleman should see more touches after what he has shown. For a Broncos offense still sorting out its identity, that kind of comment matters because it hints at where the staff wants to lean as the season moves along, even if the exact usage plan remains a little murky for the moment. [Read more 🡒]
Cardinals Just Helped Expose A Worrying Broncos Offensive Trend
The Broncos are still winning after Sean Payton took back play-calling duties in Week 5, but the change has not been as clean as the record suggests. Denver has gone 3-0 since the switch, yet there is a nagging offensive wrinkle underneath the wins, especially in the part of the field where drives are supposed to stay alive and good teams usually separate themselves.
The concern is showing up on third down, where Denver has looked far less efficient with Payton handling the calls than it did earlier in the season under Davis Webb. Even more troubling for the Broncos is the context around that slide, because the recent stretch has come against opponents that were supposed to be more manageable than the defenses Webb faced. The results are piling up in the standings, but the trend underneath them is hard to ignore. [Read more 🡒]