Fourth-Down Gambles Define Championship Sunday - But Not All Regrets Are Created Equal
Championship Sunday gave us more than just snow, grit, and high-stakes football - it delivered a double feature in the ongoing debate between aggressive fourth-down play-calling and the safer, more traditional “take the points” approach. And this time, both Sean Payton and Sean McVay found themselves on the wrong side of the result. But don’t let the outcomes fool you - the decisions weren’t created equal.
Let’s start in Denver, where the Broncos had a 7-0 lead early in the second quarter and a golden opportunity to build on it. Fourth-and-1 at New England’s 14-yard line.
In today’s NFL, that’s almost an automatic go - especially with the analytics movement continuing to reshape how coaches approach these moments. The models often show even a small edge in favor of going for it, and coaches like Payton have embraced that mindset.
But this one got messy.
Payton initially called a run play, but after taking a timeout, he pivoted to a short pass. That change proved costly.
The Patriots were ready for it, and with Jarrett Stidham - a backup quarterback still finding his footing - running the show, the execution just wasn’t there. The pass to RJ Harvey never had a real chance.
Denver came away with nothing, and that would be the last time they saw the end zone all day. They ended up losing by three.
Now, hindsight always makes these calls look clearer than they are in real time. But even in the moment, there were reasons to question the decision - not necessarily the decision to go for it, but how it was handled.
If you’re going to put the ball in your backup QB’s hands in a high-leverage spot, you better be confident he can deliver. The Patriots clearly weren’t worried about Stidham beating them through the air, and it showed.
Tony Romo didn’t hold back on the broadcast, pointing out that a 10-point lead in that weather, with Denver’s defense playing well, might have been enough. And he wasn’t wrong.
The blizzard that rolled in later made every point precious. The Broncos left three on the board, and it came back to haunt them.
Payton admitted after the game that he’ll be thinking about that decision all offseason. And that’s fair. It wasn’t just aggressive - it was aggressive without the right personnel, and it backfired.
Fast forward a few hours to the NFC Championship Game, and the Rams were in a similar spot - but with a crucial difference.
Down 31-27 with just under five minutes to play, the Rams had a second-and-4 at Seattle’s 6-yard line. Two plays later, it was fourth down, and McVay didn’t blink.
He kept the offense out there. This time, it was Matthew Stafford - a veteran quarterback with a Super Bowl ring - leading the charge.
But even he couldn’t find an open man, and the Seahawks took over on downs.
Another failed fourth-down try. Another missed opportunity. But unlike Denver, this one felt necessary.
Let’s say McVay had taken the field goal. That would’ve made it 31-30, still in Seattle’s favor.
From there, the Seahawks would’ve needed just a few first downs to either ice the game or set up a field goal to push the lead back to four. And with players like Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Kenneth Walker III making plays all day, that wasn’t exactly far-fetched.
So while the Rams’ gamble didn’t pay off, it wasn’t reckless. It was calculated.
They needed a touchdown to realistically win the game. A field goal might’ve made the scoreboard look better, but it wouldn’t have shifted the pressure onto Seattle.
McVay saw the moment and went for the win - and that’s a decision you can live with, even if it doesn’t work out.
This is where the fourth-down conversation gets tricky. People love to blame “analytics” when these calls go wrong, as if there’s a spreadsheet making the decisions.
But the truth is, analytics don’t call plays - coaches do. And context matters.
Payton’s call felt like a misread of the moment - trusting a backup QB in a high-leverage spot, in bad weather, against a defense that was ready for it. McVay’s call? That was a coach understanding the stakes, trusting his veteran quarterback, and going for the win on the road in the final minutes of a championship game.
Both teams lost. Both got burned on fourth down. But only one of those decisions deserves to be second-guessed.