Sean Payton and Bo Nix have both made a habit of handling NFC South teams, and that history is staring the Broncos right in the face as Week 9 arrives.
Denver gets Carolina on Sunday in its final game before the Week 10 bye, with the NFL Trade Deadline looming just after that. In a perfect setup, the Broncos would beat the Panthers, then potentially make a notable move before Tuesday. And if you’re looking for a reason to like Denver in this one, the track record for Payton and Nix against this division is hard to ignore.
Nix has been especially sharp against the NFC South. In four career games against the division, he is 4-0 with 97 completions on 132 attempts, a 73.48% completion rate, nine total touchdowns, no interceptions and a 111.6 passer rating.
Broncos play the Panthers on Sunday. pic.twitter.com/Q1nVTE0zB8
- Predominantly Orange (@PredomOrange) November 6, 2026
That production comes out to more than two touchdowns per game against NFC South opponents. Denver saw the whole division during Nix’s rookie season and came away with wins over Tampa Bay and New Orleans on the road, plus victories over Atlanta and Carolina at home.
There’s also been a clear recent uptick in Nix’s play. The Broncos have scored 29 points per game over the past two weeks, and Nix has looked much more efficient during that stretch with a 96.6 passer rating. Through the first six games, that number sat at 79.4.
Put it together, and Week 9 sets up as a chance for the third-year quarterback to keep rolling against a familiar group.
Payton’s history with the NFC South is just as strong. He started coaching the Saints in 2006 and stayed there through the 2021 season before taking 2022 off and later joining the Broncos. During his time in New Orleans, he posted a 65-35 regular-season record against the division, and that includes the 4-0 sweep with Denver in 2024.
His résumé against the NFC South runs deep beyond that. Payton had only two losing seasons against the division in his head coaching career, and he won at least four games against NFC South opponents in 11 different seasons.
None of that guarantees anything on Sunday, but it does explain why this matchup feels favorable for Denver. The Broncos are 6-2 and in the mix near the top of the AFC, while Carolina has struggled on defense all year and is coming off two straight losses. Bryce Young has also been struggling lately, even if that could make the Panthers more desperate.
Still, Denver has the better roster, the edge at quarterback and the coaching advantage. For a team in this spot, that should matter.
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