One game is left on the Week 1 slate, and it brings together two AFC West contenders under the Monday Night Football lights: the Denver Broncos and the Kansas City Chiefs.
It’s a matchup with plenty of moving parts. Denver is trying to build on an AFC title game appearance from the 2025 season, while Kansas City is looking to reset after a down 2025 that ended without a playoff berth. Both Patrick Mahomes and Bo Nix are coming off injuries that ended their seasons in 2025, but neither carries a designation on the final injury report, so both are expected to be out there.
The betting market has Kansas City as the home favorite, but that doesn’t erase what happened last season. The Broncos beat the Chiefs twice in 2025, including once with Mahomes in the lineup. Denver also finished as one of just two teams in the league’s top 10 in EPA/Play on both offense and defense, which is part of why it may be getting a little less respect than it should entering Week 1.
SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan took the Chiefs in his Road to 272 column, and his case starts with the broader picture of what happened last season and what should matter now. He pointed out that Denver snapped Kansas City’s nine-year AFC West run, while also noting the wild split in one-score results: the Broncos went 11-2 in those games, best in football, while the Chiefs went 1-9, worst in football.
“Everything that could have gone the Broncos' way last season, did, while everything that could have gone wrong for the Chiefs went wrong. That's why I'm thinking about more than last year's results.
The Chiefs are healthy and the better team from top to bottom. I'll back them as slight home favorites in the Week 1 edition of Monday Night Football.”
MacMillan also sees a passing game environment that could favor volume. Kansas City’s defense was respectable against the pass in 2025, finishing 12th in EPA/Pass and eighth in passing yards allowed, but the secondary has changed. Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson are gone, which gives the Chiefs a younger look back there in 2026.
That matters against a Denver offense that has already shown a willingness to throw. Nix attempted 35 or more passes in 10 of his 17 regular season games in 2025, and he did it in both meetings with Kansas City.
Sean Payton now has more weapons to work with, including newcomer Jaylen Waddle, and Nix averaged 36 attempts per game last season. If the Broncos are chasing points as underdogs, the passing volume could climb even higher in the second half.
On the other side, Rashee Rice is a name to watch for Kansas City. He enters Week 1 healthy after missing time in 2025 because of legal issues and injury, and he had six catches for 38 yards in a Week 11 loss to Denver last season.
The Broncos’ pass defense is led by Pat Surtain II and remains elite, but Rice has been Mahomes’ go-to target when available. In 2025, he had six or more receptions in six of his eight games and drew 78 targets, nearly 10 per game.
With Travis Kelce no longer the No. 1 option he once was, Rice could be in for a heavy workload.
Denver’s biggest offensive addition also has a touchdown angle. The Broncos brought in Jaylen Waddle in a trade with the Miami Dolphins, and MacMillan likes him at north of 2/1 to score in Week 1.
Waddle is coming off a six-touchdown season despite rough quarterback play in Miami, and Denver’s pass-heavy offense should give him plenty of chances right away. He had already been a steady 1,000-yard receiver earlier in his career, and the expectation is that he’ll be featured immediately.
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