Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season wraps up with an AFC West showdown on Monday Night Football, as the Denver Broncos visit the Kansas City Chiefs.
It’s a matchup loaded with questions on both sides, even though both clubs are priced as playoff contenders entering the season. Kansas City is coming off a rough year that ended with Patrick Mahomes sidelined by a torn ACL, yet the Chiefs still sit at the top of the AFC West futures board and near the front of the Super Bowl market. Denver, meanwhile, is coming off an AFC Championship Game appearance after Bo Nix missed the finish because of a broken ankle, but the Broncos are being treated much more cautiously by oddsmakers despite a season that put them in the No. 1 seed spot in the AFC.
The market has Kansas City favored by three points at home, and that number comes with a little context: the Chiefs went 5-3-1 against the spread at home in 2025. The question now is whether Mahomes can look like himself right away after the knee injury, or whether Denver’s defense can make life miserable from the jump.
All the attention will be on Mahomes in his return. Last season, he started 14 games and helped Kansas City to a 6-8 record, which was easily the most frustrating season of his career from a win-loss standpoint.
He threw for 3,587 yards, 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, completed 62.7 percent of his passes and averaged 7.1 yards per attempt. At the same time, he also gave the Chiefs a career-best 422 rushing yards and five scores on the ground, a reminder that he had to carry a heavier load with his legs.
How much of that running game he can lean on now will be a major storyline against a Denver pass rush that should test him immediately.
The Chiefs did make a notable addition in the offseason by bringing in Kenneth Walker III, giving the offense another piece as Mahomes works back to full health and mobility. Even so, this still feels like a proving-ground game for Kansas City’s quarterback.
Denver has its own reasons to believe it belongs near the top of the league again. Sean Payton’s team retained a lot of key talent and added Jaylen Waddle to an offense that was already among the most pass-heavy in the NFL last season. The Broncos also bring one of the league’s best defenses and what the source describes as the best offensive line in football.
There’s also a strong case that Denver has been overlooked a bit. The Broncos were one of only two teams last season to finish in the top 10 in EPA/Play on both offense and defense, alongside New England.
They also thrived as underdogs, covering in five games and pushing in the other during their run to the AFC’s top seed. That’s part of why the three-point number stands out; the case is there that the line should have been closer to 1.5 or 2.
For that reason, Denver looks like the side to grab with the points, and there’s even an argument for an outright upset on Monday night.
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Former Broncos QB May Have Already Helped Denvers Playoff Race
When the Broncos and Patriots finished the 2025 regular season with matching records, Denver wound up taking the AFCs top playoff seed on tiebreakers, including common-opponent winning percentage. That sort of margin is the kind that can feel abstract in the moment, but it can also linger into the next season when another close race starts to take shape.
Drew Lock, now with the Seahawks, may have already nudged that race in Denvers favor. After Sam Darnold was injured in a 2026 game, Lock came on and helped Seattle beat New England 13-10, a result that stung the Patriots even more when they threw three fourth-quarter interceptions. The Broncos still have their own date with New England in Week 17, and depending on how the rest of the season unfolds, that meeting could carry real weight in the playoff picture. [Read more 🡒]
Broncos Just Got Another Reason To Believe In This 2026 Team
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The numbers are especially notable because they point to balance rather than a team leaning on one strength to carry the rest. Denver is projected to rank 10th on offense, fifth on defense and 20th in special teams, and the model gives the Broncos a 64.7% chance of making the playoffs in 2026. For a team trying to turn promise into something more durable, that kind of forecast offers a real reason to believe the foundation is already there. [Read more 🡒]
Bo Nix Is Giving Broncos Fans A New Reason To Believe
Bo Nix enters his third year with a different kind of energy, and it has been noticeable throughout Broncos training camp and preseason work. The quarterback is playing with more confidence, moving well when the pocket breaks down and showing more trust in his throws, which has made the offense look a little more purposeful around him. Coaches and teammates have also pointed to his progress in reading defenses, a sign that the game is slowing down for him in a way Denver has been waiting to see.
What stands out most is the change in mindset. Early in his career, Nix often seemed focused on avoiding the mistake; now he is clearly trying to create plays and lead the offense instead of simply keeping it afloat. He has even shown a greater willingness to challenge top defenders, which is usually the kind of step that matters when a young quarterback is trying to move from promising to dependable. [Read more 🡒]