As we hit the home stretch of the 2025 NFL regular season, the AFC playoff picture is starting to crystallize-and two teams have taken center stage in a way few predicted back in September. The Denver Broncos and New England Patriots are both riding ten-game winning streaks and suddenly find themselves neck-and-neck in the race for the AFC’s top seed. But while the records are identical, the roads they’ve taken-and the ones they’re about to travel-couldn’t be more different.
Let’s start in Denver, where the Broncos have battled through one of the league’s toughest schedules to climb to the top of the AFC West. Their path has been anything but smooth.
We’re talking about wins over legitimate contenders like the defending champs, a red-hot Colts team early in the season, and tough matchups with the Chiefs, Chargers, Cowboys, and Texans. This isn’t a team that’s been padding its record against bottom-feeders-they’ve earned every bit of their spot in the standings.
And it’s not over yet. The Broncos still have two divisional games left-never an easy task, especially in the AFC West-and they’ll host a feisty Jaguars squad in Week 16.
Their only remaining game that isn’t against a current playoff team? A Christmas Day showdown in Kansas City.
And let’s be honest: a trip to Arrowhead in December is never a breather, no matter what the Chiefs’ record says.
All told, Denver’s final four opponents have a combined record of 33-18-1. That’s a brutal stretch to close out the season.
And if you take Kansas City’s 6-7 mark out of the equation, the other three teams are sitting at 27-11-1. That’s the kind of schedule that can make or break a playoff run-and it’ll test every ounce of this Broncos team’s resilience and depth.
Now flip the script and head over to Foxborough, where the Patriots have taken full advantage of a last-place schedule after finishing 4-13 a year ago. While Denver’s been slugging it out with the AFC elite, New England has quietly stacked wins against some of the league’s weaker teams-and it’s worked. They’ve beaten who’s in front of them, including a solid road win in Buffalo, and now find themselves in prime position for a first-round bye.
But let’s talk numbers, because they tell the story here. The Patriots’ final four opponents have a combined record of 24-28.
And that’s with the Bills’ 9-4 record doing a lot of the heavy lifting. Take Buffalo out, and the other three teams New England will face down the stretch are a combined 15-28.
That’s not exactly a murderers’ row.
In fact, those final three games-against three sub-.500 teams-could give rookie quarterback Drake Maye and the Patriots a clear runway to the postseason. It’s been evident all year that New England’s schedule was favorable, but these last four games really drive the point home: the Patriots are in a position to cruise into January if they simply take care of business.
So here we are-two teams, two ten-game win streaks, and two very different roads to the top of the AFC. The Broncos are staring down a playoff gauntlet before the playoffs even begin, while the Patriots are poised to coast through a soft landing. It’s a fascinating contrast, and it sets up a compelling finish to the regular season.
Whether Denver can survive its brutal closing stretch-or whether New England can capitalize on its golden opportunity-will go a long way in determining who gets home-field advantage in the AFC. And in a conference this stacked, that edge could be everything.