Broncos' Path to AFC's Top Seed Hits Major Roadblock After Costly Loss to Jaguars
The Denver Broncos had a golden opportunity to tighten their grip on the AFC’s No. 1 seed. Instead, they ran into a Jacksonville Jaguars team that came into Mile High with momentum - and left with a statement win.
Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars rolled into Denver and handed the Broncos a 34-20 defeat in Week 16, a result that not only snapped Denver’s winning streak but also cracked open the AFC playoff race. The loss drops the Broncos to 12-3, still tied for the conference’s best record, but now surrounded by contenders breathing down their necks.
With the Jaguars improving to 11-4, they join the Bills, Chargers, and Patriots in that tightly packed second tier of AFC hopefuls. And here’s where things get tricky for Denver: they’ve got two games left - both tough, both meaningful - and the tiebreakers aren’t working in their favor.
Let’s break it down.
The Tiebreaker Web Tightens
Denver’s remaining schedule isn’t doing them any favors. They travel to Kansas City to face a struggling but still dangerous Chiefs team on Christmas Day, then return home to close the regular season against the Los Angeles Chargers - a team that already beat them once this year.
That Week 18 matchup could very well decide the AFC West crown. Because the Chargers hold the head-to-head advantage from their Week 3 win, another victory would give them the season sweep and the division title. And if they win out - with a very winnable game against the Texans up next - the Chargers could leapfrog into the No. 1 seed conversation themselves.
Meanwhile, Jacksonville now owns the head-to-head tiebreaker over Denver thanks to Sunday’s win. That could loom large if both teams finish with identical records. The Bills and Patriots are also in the mix, and if Buffalo overtakes New England in the AFC East, they too could be in play for the top spot.
So yes, the Broncos are still in the driver’s seat - technically. But the road ahead is full of potholes, and the GPS just rerouted half the AFC into their lane.
What Went Wrong in Week 16?
This wasn’t just a slip-up; it was a missed opportunity that could haunt Denver come playoff time. A win over Jacksonville would’ve trimmed the number of contenders and simplified the Broncos’ path to home-field advantage. Instead, they now find themselves in a four-way sprint with no margin for error.
Trevor Lawrence played like a quarterback who’s finding his late-season groove, and the Jaguars looked every bit like a team peaking at the right time. Denver’s defense, which has been a strength all year, couldn’t keep up. And the offense didn’t have enough answers when it mattered most.
Looking Ahead: Two Games, One Big Question
The Broncos' Christmas Day matchup in Kansas City is one they should win - at least on paper. The Chiefs haven’t looked like their usual selves lately. But division games, especially this late in the season, are rarely predictable.
Then comes the big one: Week 18 vs. the Chargers. That game could decide the division, playoff seeding, and whether Denver opens the postseason at home or hits the road as a wild card. It’s the kind of high-stakes showdown you circle in red ink.
As ESPN’s Dan Graziano put it, this isn’t an overreaction - Week 16 really was a turning point. The AFC’s top seed is still up for grabs, but the Broncos no longer control their fate in the way they did just a week ago.
If they end up watching someone else earn that first-round bye, they’ll look back at this loss to Jacksonville as the one that let it all slip away.