The Denver Broncos are walking into Foxborough this Sunday as clear underdogs in the AFC Championship Game, and they’ll need to thread a pretty tight needle if they want to punch a ticket to the Super Bowl. Beating the New England Patriots on their home turf is no small task - especially when you’re rolling with a backup quarterback and a run game that’s been missing in action for weeks.
Let’s break down the matchups that could swing this game, starting with the most critical question: can Jarrett Stidham hold up under pressure?
Stidham’s Pocket Presence Will Be Tested - Hard
There’s no sugarcoating it - Jarrett Stidham isn’t exactly known for his mobility. While Bo Nix has shown real growth in his ability to manipulate the pocket - sliding, stepping up, even rolling out when needed - Stidham is more of a traditional drop-back passer. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, but it becomes a problem when the pocket collapses and there’s nowhere to go.
Against a Patriots defense that thrives on disguising coverages and bringing pressure from unexpected angles, Stidham will have to be sharp pre-snap and even sharper post-snap. The Patriots love to bait quarterbacks into bad decisions, and if Stidham can’t move well enough to extend plays or avoid sacks, he could be staring down a string of long-yardage situations - the kind that lead to turnovers.
This isn’t just about avoiding negative plays. It’s about keeping the offense on schedule, staying out of third-and-longs, and giving the Broncos a chance to control tempo. If Stidham can’t do that, Denver’s chances shrink fast.
Can Courtland Sutton Shake Loose?
One of the quiet stories from last week’s win over Buffalo was how thoroughly the Bills erased Courtland Sutton for most of the game. He didn’t really get going until the third quarter, but when he did, he came up with some clutch catches that helped seal the deal. Sutton is Denver’s go-to possession guy - the player who moves the chains when it matters most.
So what does New England do with him? There’s a good chance they’ll deploy Christian Gonzalez, their top corner, in a shadow role.
Gonzalez didn’t lock onto any one receiver in last week’s win over Houston - likely a nod to the Texans being down Nico Collins - but this week could be different. Sutton is the kind of physical, contested-catch receiver that can give even elite corners trouble, but Gonzalez has the length and athleticism to match up well.
If the Patriots do commit Gonzalez to Sutton, it’ll be interesting to see how Sean Payton counters. Does he scheme Sutton into motion to shake the coverage?
Does he use Sutton as a decoy to open things up for Jerry Jeudy or Greg Dulcich? Either way, this matchup is going to be a chess match all afternoon.
The Ground Game: Denver’s Biggest X-Factor
Let’s not overthink it - if the Broncos can’t run the ball, this game could get away from them early. The good news?
There’s a chance J.K. Dobbins and center Luke Wattenberg return from injury.
The bad news? They’ll be facing one of the nastiest interior defensive line duos in the league.
Milton Williams and Christian Barmore were absolute wrecking balls last week against Houston, holding the Texans to just 48 yards on 22 carries. That’s not just stout - that’s dominant. And if Denver can’t find a way to move those guys off the ball, they’re going to be living in second-and-long and third-and-long, which is exactly what New England wants.
This is where Dobbins could be a game-changer. He brings a level of burst and vision that Denver’s been missing.
If he’s healthy enough to make defenders miss and turn three-yard gains into six, that opens up the entire playbook. And if Wattenberg can help stabilize the interior of the line, it gives Denver a fighting chance to control the line of scrimmage - something they haven’t done in weeks.
Final Thoughts
The Broncos are going to need a near-flawless performance to pull off the upset. That means Stidham has to avoid the big mistake, Sutton has to win his matchup (or at least draw enough attention to open things up), and the run game has to show signs of life - ideally with Dobbins back in the mix.
It’s a tall order, no doubt. But this is the playoffs.
Survive and advance. And if Denver can win a few key battles in the trenches and get just enough from their backup quarterback, they might just make things interesting in Foxborough.