ESPN’s latest Football Power Index simulation is already giving Broncos fans plenty to argue about.
The model projects Denver to fall to 7-10 in 2026 and miss the playoffs, while the Kansas City Chiefs are forecast to take back the AFC West. In ESPN’s simulated season, the Chiefs go 12-5 and land the No. 2 seed in the AFC, the Chargers finish 10-7 and grab the No. 5 seed, and Kansas City’s season ends with a 27-24 loss to Los Angeles in the divisional round at Arrowhead Stadium.
For Denver, Seth Walder’s writeup on the simulation was especially blunt: “As for the Broncos, who were arguably a Bo Nix injury short of making it to the Super Bowl a year ago? They regressed badly and finished 7-10,” he wrote.
That kind of prediction hits a nerve because ESPN’s FPI got last year’s Broncos outcome right, including Denver winning the division and the Chiefs missing the playoffs. But the same simulation also missed badly in other places, projecting the Colts to win the AFC South and the Titans to sneak into a Wild Card spot.
Neither team reached the postseason. It also had the Cowboys winning the NFC East and the Eagles missing the playoffs, even though Philadelphia won the division and Dallas did not make it.
The point is pretty simple: these simulations can be useful conversation starters, but they’re not gospel.
What has Broncos fans on edge is the schedule, especially the opening stretch. Denver’s first six weeks have been described as brutal, and this is the toughest first six weeks the team has faced since the writer began covering the Broncos more than a decade ago.
Still, that burden isn’t Denver’s alone. The Chiefs and Chargers are dealing with difficult slates too.
Because the AFC West drew the AFC East and NFC West this year, Denver, Kansas City, Los Angeles, and Las Vegas all have to deal with the Bills, Patriots, 49ers, Rams, and Seahawks. The Broncos do face all four NFC West teams in the first seven weeks, while the Chiefs don’t get an NFC West opponent until Week 7. Denver will have already worked through that entire group before its Week 8 rematch with Kansas City in Denver, while the Chiefs’ matchups with those teams are spread more evenly.
That early gauntlet could cut both ways. If the Broncos are the team they looked like in a 14-win season, and if they really were one Bo Nix injury away from reaching the Super Bowl, then the early grind could harden them.
By the time the Chiefs see Denver again in Week 8, the Broncos could be much tougher to handle. But the same stretch could also wear on Kansas City and Los Angeles in a slower, steadier way.
There are other complications for the Chiefs as well. Beyond the shared divisional games, Kansas City is scheduled to face the Colts and Bengals, two teams that missed the playoffs last season but could bounce back in 2026 with Joe Burrow returning to Cincinnati and Daniel Jones back with Indianapolis.
The Chargers’ extra games aren’t exactly a walk in the park either. In addition to the common AFC West slate, Los Angeles gets the Texans, Ravens, and Buccaneers.
Denver’s own unique opponents from its first-place finish include the Jaguars in Week 2, at the Panthers in Week 9, and at the Steelers in Week 12. The Jaguars game stands out as the toughest of that trio, while Carolina and Pittsburgh are not viewed as especially intimidating.
So while the schedule-makers handed Denver a punishing start, the broader AFC West picture looks much more even than it might seem at first glance. This may not turn into another 14-win run, and the first team in the division to 10 wins could end up taking the crown. Even so, a Broncos team that reaches 10, 11, or 12 wins is still the kind nobody in the league wants to see in January.
That belief comes from more than just Nix being healthy again. J.K. Dobbins and Brandon Jones are back, and Denver has added Jaylen Waddle and its 2026 draft class.
In the end, the games will settle it, not a simulation. And the Broncos will get their first major test right away, when they open against the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium on Monday Night Football.
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