The Broncos have opened 2026 at 2-1, which is the best September run of the Sean Payton era. That record looks solid on the surface, but the first three weeks have also exposed some real rough edges. The offense has been slow out of the gate in first halves, the run game hasn’t gotten traction, and the defense has had trouble shutting down the run at times.
Even so, Denver has kept finding ways to finish games, and that matters because the Broncos are still in the kind of season where bigger dreams are at least in play. Before anyone starts talking about a Super Bowl run, though, they have to get to the postseason first. And Week 4 carries more weight for their playoff outlook than it might seem.
According to data assembled by Pro Football Reference, which tracks playoff chances by record in the seven-team format that began in 2020, a 2-1 start gives Denver a 62 percent shot at making the postseason. That’s the baseline heading into the week.
The swing is where it gets interesting. A win over the 49ers would move the Broncos to 3-1 and push their playoff chances to 78 percent. A loss would drop them back to 2-2, and that would pull their chances down to 39 percent.
Those numbers are based on how teams with those records have fared from 2020 through 2025, not on some current live projection. And there’s another wrinkle worth remembering: the NFL’s 17-game regular season didn’t begin until 2021, so the record history behind these percentages isn’t built on the exact same schedule format throughout.
Still, the larger point is hard to miss. One game can change the picture a lot.
It’s fair to note that Denver was 2-2 in both 2024 and 2025 and still reached the playoffs, so the Broncos have already shown they can buck the historical trend. But that only makes the case for a 3-1 start stronger. It would make the path into October much cleaner.
Last season, Denver won 14 games and needed every one of them to grab the top seed. If they had finished 13-4, they would have landed as the third seed instead. That’s the kind of margin the Broncos are dealing with again now: maybe not season-defining in Week 4, but absolutely the kind of result that can make the rest of the year a lot easier.
In Other News...
Broncos Could Get A Dangerous Weapon Back Just In Time
Marvin Mims Jr. was back on the practice field in full Wednesday, a welcome sign for a Broncos offense that has been waiting to get one of its more explosive pieces back in the mix. The second-year wide receiver missed the last two games because of a foot injury, and his return to full participation suggests Denver may be getting close to restoring a dangerous vertical threat just in time for a matchup with the 49ers.
The Broncos will still have to wait for the rest of the week before anything is official, but Mims availability is suddenly a storyline worth watching. If he can keep trending in the right direction, Denver could have a timely boost in a game where every bit of speed and spacing matters. [Read more 🡒]
Broncos Get Early Injury Relief Before A Huge 49ers Test
The Broncos got a little encouraging injury news early in the week as they began preparing for a tough test against the 49ers. Wide receiver Jaylen Waddle was back on the practice field after previously being seen in a walking boot, and Marvin Mims Jr. also logged a full session after being limited and then inactive for a game. Running back J.K. Dobbins was another welcome sight, practicing in full despite the hip issue that had been hanging over him.
There were still a few spots to monitor, though. Edge rusher Dondrea Tillman sat out with a hamstring issue, even if he was around the team, and defensive lineman Zach Allen was limited as the Broncos managed his workload for rest. With San Francisco looming, Denvers early-week health picture is trending in the right direction, but the availability of a few key pieces will still matter as the week unfolds. [Read more 🡒]
Broncos Defense Is Flipping A Costly Trend From Last Season
Through three games in the Sean Payton era, the Broncos have found something that was hard to come by at times last season: takeaways. Denvers defense has already forced four interceptions, the most in the league so far, and has produced at least one turnover in every game, giving the unit a steadier edge than it showed a year ago.
The payoff has shown up in the numbers, too, with opposing quarterbacks managing only a 74.3 passer rating against Denver. For a team that spent much of last season chasing consistency on defense, the early return is encouraging, even if the real test will be whether this turnover streak can hold once the schedule starts to sharpen. [Read more 🡒]