History says the Broncos are staring at a brutal climb if they want to do better than 14 wins in 2026.
Denver is coming off a 14-3 season, and that kind of year almost never gets followed by another step forward. Since the NFL moved to 17 regular-season games, there have been six 14-win teams in the last five seasons alone, which naturally makes the feat feel a little more reachable. But the bigger historical picture still points in one direction: those teams usually come back to earth.
Only 36 teams in league history have won 14 or more games, and not one of them improved on that total the following season. Just two matched it the next year: the 1989 49ers and the 2003 Patriots. On average, those teams dropped by four wins the next season.
That’s the shadow hanging over Denver in 2026.
The recent cautionary tales are even sharper. The 2024 Chiefs followed a 15-2 season by going 6-11 in 2025.
The 2022 Eagles went from 14-3 to 11-6 the next year. The 2020 Chiefs dropped from 14-2 to 12-5.
The 2019 Ravens slid from 14-2 to 11-5. The 2016 Patriots still made it back to 13-3 and won the Super Bowl in 2017, but they were the exception, not the rule.
There are also the ugly outliers, and they’re hard to ignore. The 1998 Falcons went from 14-2 to 5-11.
The 2015 Panthers fell from 15-1 to 6-10. The 2024 Chiefs were even worse, tumbling from 15-2 to 6-11.
Denver’s own history includes a warning sign too. The 1998 Broncos won 14 games and the Super Bowl, then followed that up with a 6-10 season in 1999.
The broader trend is just as unforgiving. Since 1970, the 33 teams to win at least 14 games have lost an average of four more games the next season. No team in that group has ever won more the following year.
Still, there’s one angle that keeps Denver’s hopes alive: the quarterback timeline. The Broncos’ situation draws comparisons to the 2019 Ravens and the 2022 Eagles.
All three teams had young quarterbacks and strong defenses. Lamar Jackson was entering his third season as Baltimore’s starting quarterback in 2019, while Jalen Hurts was in his third full season as Philadelphia’s starter in 2022.
Bo Nix is about to begin his third season as the Broncos’ starting quarterback.
That matters because recent first-round quarterbacks often make their biggest leap in that third year as a starter. If that pattern holds, Nix could move from the “his defense carried him” crowd to legitimate MVP talk.
The league-wide numbers also frame just how extreme the last two seasons have been. The NFL has been unusually top-heavy, with seven teams over the last two seasons winning at least 82% of their games.
There were only nine such seasons in the last four years. The 2024 season was the only one in NFL history with four teams hitting that mark.
At the other end of the spectrum, the Broncos do not appear on the list of franchises with a terrible season since the merger, defined here as winning 18% or fewer of their games. Twenty-six franchises have at least one such season, but Denver is one of the six that doesn’t. The others are the Steelers, Washington, the Packers, the Vikings, and the Falcons.
So the Broncos are in a rare spot: coming off one of the league’s elite regular seasons, with history saying a repeat or improvement is a long shot, and with Bo Nix’s third year offering the clearest path to keeping the window open.
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Former Broncos QB May Have Already Helped Denvers Playoff Race
When the Broncos and Patriots finished the 2025 regular season with matching records, Denver wound up taking the AFCs top playoff seed on tiebreakers, including common-opponent winning percentage. That sort of margin is the kind that can feel abstract in the moment, but it can also linger into the next season when another close race starts to take shape.
Drew Lock, now with the Seahawks, may have already nudged that race in Denvers favor. After Sam Darnold was injured in a 2026 game, Lock came on and helped Seattle beat New England 13-10, a result that stung the Patriots even more when they threw three fourth-quarter interceptions. The Broncos still have their own date with New England in Week 17, and depending on how the rest of the season unfolds, that meeting could carry real weight in the playoff picture. [Read more 🡒]
Broncos Just Got Another Reason To Believe In This 2026 Team
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The numbers are especially notable because they point to balance rather than a team leaning on one strength to carry the rest. Denver is projected to rank 10th on offense, fifth on defense and 20th in special teams, and the model gives the Broncos a 64.7% chance of making the playoffs in 2026. For a team trying to turn promise into something more durable, that kind of forecast offers a real reason to believe the foundation is already there. [Read more 🡒]
Bo Nix Is Giving Broncos Fans A New Reason To Believe
Bo Nix enters his third year with a different kind of energy, and it has been noticeable throughout Broncos training camp and preseason work. The quarterback is playing with more confidence, moving well when the pocket breaks down and showing more trust in his throws, which has made the offense look a little more purposeful around him. Coaches and teammates have also pointed to his progress in reading defenses, a sign that the game is slowing down for him in a way Denver has been waiting to see.
What stands out most is the change in mindset. Early in his career, Nix often seemed focused on avoiding the mistake; now he is clearly trying to create plays and lead the offense instead of simply keeping it afloat. He has even shown a greater willingness to challenge top defenders, which is usually the kind of step that matters when a young quarterback is trying to move from promising to dependable. [Read more 🡒]