The Denver Broncos are heading into a high-stakes showdown with the Buffalo Bills in the 2025-26 NFL Playoffs - and this one carries a little extra weight. Not only is it the 43rd meeting between these two franchises, but it’s also a shot at redemption for Denver, who saw their postseason cut short by Buffalo in last year’s Wild Card round.
This time around, the Broncos come in rested, with a full week to prepare and a chance to execute a game plan that’s been tailored to exploit Buffalo’s vulnerabilities. The Bills, on the other hand, limp into the matchup with a lengthy injury report and some question marks on both sides of the ball. If Denver is going to flip the script from last year, here are three critical areas that could decide the outcome.
1. Attack Buffalo’s Run Defense
Let’s start with the obvious: Buffalo’s run defense has been a soft spot all season. They wrapped up the regular season ranked 28th in rushing yards allowed per game, giving up 136 on average - and that number isn’t just a stat, it’s a flashing red light for opposing offenses.
Jacksonville exposed it in the Wild Card round, racking up 123 rushing yards (not even counting Trevor Lawrence’s scrambles) and consistently ripping off chunk plays - five runs of 10+ yards, including two that went for 20 or more. What’s notable here is the style of Jacksonville’s run game.
Their approach mirrors what Denver likes to do: zone runs with a mix of Pin and Pull concepts. That’s a green light for Sean Payton and the Broncos’ offense to lean into what they do best.
RJ Harvey and Bo Nix should be the primary weapons in those outside run looks, while Jaleel McLaughlin can handle the inside work between the tackles. If Denver can get the ground game going early, it’ll take pressure off Nix, open up play-action, and allow them to control the tempo - a must in a hostile playoff environment.
2. Limit the Big Plays from Josh Allen
Containing Josh Allen is easier said than done - the guy’s a walking highlight reel when he’s in rhythm. But if Denver’s defense can keep the game in front of them and avoid giving up explosive plays, they’ll have a real shot at slowing down the Bills’ offense.
Buffalo’s receiving corps is banged up heading into this one, with two more wideouts out due to injury. That puts a lot of pressure on Khalil Shakir to carry the load in the passing game. If Denver can neutralize him, Allen’s options become limited - and that’s when he starts pressing.
One of the key matchups here will be Denver’s man coverage against Allen’s ability to extend plays. Most of his success this season has come against zone defenses, which Denver doesn’t typically rely on. Expect the Broncos to stick with tight man coverage and force Allen to either check it down or make plays with his legs - both of which can lead to mistakes if Denver’s defensive front maintains discipline.
And while Jacksonville struggled to contain Allen on short-yardage QB sneaks - giving up five yards a pop at times - Denver can’t afford to make the same mistake. Discipline at the line of scrimmage will be key.
3. Win the Turnover Battle
Here’s where things get interesting. Sean Payton pointed out a telling trend: in all but one of Buffalo’s losses over the past couple of seasons, the Bills have lost the turnover battle. That stat isn’t just trivia - it’s a blueprint.
The challenge for Denver? Forcing turnovers has been hit-or-miss this season.
They showed flashes in Week 18 against the Chargers, but that came against a roster full of backups. Against a playoff-caliber offense, they’ll need to be more opportunistic.
Interceptions might be tough to come by - Allen, for all his risk-taking, can thread the needle when he’s locked in - so look for Denver to focus on stripping the ball and creating fumbles. Whether it’s chasing down Allen on a scramble or punching the ball out after a short completion, the Broncos need to find ways to generate extra possessions.
Final Word
This isn’t just another playoff game for the Broncos - it’s a chance to prove they’ve grown since last year’s early exit. They’ve got the rest advantage, a vulnerable opponent, and a clear path to victory if they can execute in these three areas. Establish the run, keep Allen in check, and find a way to win the turnover battle - do that, and Denver just might be moving on to the next round.