The Denver Broncos are on the brink of something few thought possible just a couple of months ago: clinching the No. 1 seed in the AFC - and they could do it as early as this Sunday.
Yes, it’s a long shot. Yes, it requires more than just a win. But the fact that we’re even talking about this in Week 16 is a testament to how far this Broncos team has come.
Let’s break down how this could all unfold.
Step One: Take Care of Business at Home
First and foremost, Denver has to handle its own game - and that’s no layup. The Broncos host the red-hot Jacksonville Jaguars at Empower Field at Mile High, and this Jags team is rolling.
Winners of five straight, Jacksonville sits at 10-4 and has been lighting up the scoreboard. They’ve put up 25 or more points in each of those five wins, including a 48-point explosion against the Jets last week.
The Broncos’ defense, which has been the backbone of their resurgence, will need to be sharp. This is a Jacksonville offense that’s found its rhythm, and they’re not shy about pushing the tempo. But if Denver can slow them down and continue to protect the football - something they’ve done well during their winning streak - they’ll give themselves a real shot.
Step Two: The Dominoes Must Fall
Even if the Broncos take care of business, they’ll need help - quite a bit of it - to leap all the way into the AFC’s top spot by the end of the weekend.
Here’s what else needs to happen:
- Chargers lose or tie vs. Cowboys
- Bills lose or tie at Browns
- Patriots lose to the Ravens on Sunday Night Football
None of these are impossible, but some are more likely than others.
Start with the Cowboys-Chargers matchup. Dallas has been inconsistent at times, but they’ve shown enough on both sides of the ball to hang with anyone.
At home, they’re especially dangerous. If their pass rush can get after L.A.’s quarterback and force a few mistakes, they could absolutely tilt the AFC West in Denver’s favor.
Then there’s Ravens vs. Patriots.
Baltimore is in a dogfight for the AFC North and can’t afford to slip up. Expect them to come out swinging against a Patriots team that’s struggled to find its footing this season.
The toughest ask? Buffalo losing to Cleveland.
The Browns have shown flashes, but pulling off a win over a Bills team that’s still fighting for playoff position would be a major upset. That’s the piece of the puzzle that feels the most precarious right now.
What’s Still on the Table
Even if the No. 1 seed doesn’t come together this weekend, there’s still a big prize in reach: the AFC West crown. A Broncos win, paired with a Chargers loss or tie, would seal the division for the first time since 2015 - the year Denver went on to win Super Bowl 50.
But it’s not just about clinching early - it’s about avoiding a late-season stumble. If the Broncos lose to Jacksonville and the Chargers knock off the Cowboys, Denver’s lead in the division shrinks to a single game. And with L.A. holding the head-to-head tiebreaker, that would set up a high-stakes finish in Week 18.
The Bottom Line
The Broncos are officially back in the playoff conversation in a big way. Whether or not the stars align this Sunday, they’ve put themselves in a position to control their fate - and possibly even rest up with a first-round bye if everything breaks right.
It’s been a long road back to relevance for Denver, but with an 11-game winning streak and a chance to lock up the AFC West - or more - this weekend, the Mile High faithful have every reason to believe again.