The Broncos’ first two weeks have already told a pretty useful story. After an ugly opener, Denver steadied itself with a 20-13 home win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, and that result matters because the next month is going to ask a lot more questions.
Week 1, as Aaron Schatz likes to call it, is “National Jump to Conclusions Week.” That line fits Denver perfectly right now.
One rough game against the Chiefs had people ready to write the Broncos off, but Week 2 showed they can still handle a quality opponent. The bigger issue is what comes next, because the Broncos are heading into a four-game stretch that will say plenty about where this team really stands.
DVOA offers one way to sort through it. It’s not the whole picture, but it does measure how efficient a team has been in all three phases.
After two weeks, Denver sits 15th overall at 8.6%. The Broncos are 16th on offense at -0.8%, 12th on defense at -6%, and 13th on special teams at 3.4%.
In other words, they look like a league-average team right now. That’s not a dead end by any means. There’s a long season ahead, and a middle-of-the-pack DVOA in September doesn’t lock anyone into anything.
The Broncos’ own division and conference context helps frame things, too. The Chiefs are fourth overall at 32.4%, with a sixth-ranked offense at 21.3%, 10th-ranked defense at -12.4%, and 20th-ranked special teams at -1.3%. The Jaguars are 11th overall at 17.5%, with a fifth-ranked offense at 21.9%, 14th-ranked defense at -1.7%, and 24th-ranked special teams at -6.1%.
That gap matters, even if it’s still early. Jacksonville crushed the Browns, while Denver looked bad against Kansas City, so the rankings reflect what has happened so far. But once opponent adjustments fully come into play, the Broncos could still climb ahead of the Jaguars.
The immediate schedule offers a mix of opportunity and danger. The Rams are 14th overall at 9.9%, with an eighth-ranked offense at 11.5%, a ninth-ranked defense at -14.1%, and a 32nd-ranked special teams unit at -15.7%. That special teams number stands out, and it may be the area Denver can attack in Week 3.
Then comes the 49ers, and they’re the toughest matchup in the Broncos’ next four. San Francisco is first overall at 78%, with the second-ranked offense at 47%, fifth-ranked defense at -27.5%, and 12th-ranked special teams at 3.5%. Even with some injuries in the mix, the 49ers are playing at a high level across the board, and this looks like a brutal road test for Denver.
The Chargers are the wild card. They’re 30th overall at -44%, with a 27th-ranked offense at -20.6%, 27th-ranked defense at 16.9%, and 25th-ranked special teams at -6.5%.
Plenty of Broncos fans probably circled that one as a win before the season, but Los Angeles being 0-2 changes the feel of it. Even so, Denver can’t assume anything if the Chargers come in desperate.
Seattle rounds out the stretch, and the Seahawks are fifth overall at 31.8%, with a 15th-ranked offense at -0.7%, second-ranked defense at -30%, and 15th-ranked special teams at 2.4%. The offense may not match the flash, but the defense is the real problem for opponents. Denver gets Seattle at home, which helps, but the Broncos will have to protect the ball and avoid self-inflicted damage if they want a shot.
There’s also some extra juice around that matchup, with Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald and Sean Payton both described as uniquely motivated going into the game.
If Denver wants to get to 3-3 through six games, it likely needs to steal one of those NFC West matchups. The Rams may be the cleanest opening because of that weak special teams unit and the possibility they could be missing key players.
The Seahawks also present a path if things break right, but that will require a sharp offensive performance. The Chargers, despite their ugly start, still can’t be treated lightly.
And the 49ers may be the one the Broncos simply don’t get, even if San Francisco is missing a couple of key players by then.
That said, even a loss to the 49ers could still tell Denver something useful if the Broncos play well overall. Two weeks is a tiny sample, but it’s enough to start spotting trends. Right now, the Broncos look ordinary, the schedule ahead does not, and the margin for error is going to stay thin.
In Other News...
Broncos First-Round Pick Is Already Raising An Uncomfortable Question
Jahdae Barron arrived in Denver with the kind of draft pedigree that usually comes with an immediate runway, but the early part of his second season has looked nothing like that. Through the first two games of the 2026 NFL season, the Broncos cornerback has played only six defensive snaps, a sign of just how crowded the depth chart has become behind Patrick Surtain II, Riley Moss and Ja'Quan McMillian.
For a first-round pick from 2025, that reality raises an awkward question about how soon Barron can carve out a meaningful role. The Broncos clearly value the talent they added, but with the secondary already established, it is fair to wonder whether Barron is headed toward a longer developmental path than teams usually expect from a player taken that high, and whether Denver drafted for the future at a spot where the present was already spoken for. [Read more 🡒]
Broncos May Be Catching The Rams At A Very Different Time
The Broncos trip to face the Rams comes with at least one major offensive wrinkle, because Puka Nacua is still a question mark after sitting out Week 2 with hip and groin issues. Sean McVay said the team is being careful with soft tissue injuries and is preparing as if it may need to get by without leaning on Nacuas availability, which changes the look of a matchup Denver was already circling.
For the Broncos, that uncertainty matters because Nacua has been one of the Rams most important passing-game pieces when healthy. It also lands against the backdrop of a candid offseason interview in which Nacua discussed his struggles with stress and alcohol and said he is focused on improving for his family and his career, a reminder that his week-to-week status is only part of a much bigger picture around the Rams top target. [Read more 🡒]
Sean Payton Knows The Broncos Have A Problem Even After Winning
The Broncos left Jacksonville with a 20-13 win and the kind of relief that comes from surviving a second-half deficit, but Sean Payton did not treat it like a clean bill of health. After back-to-back weeks of football that have already tested their nerve, the coach pointed to the value of winning close games while also making it clear Denver cannot keep leaning on late escapes as a long-term plan.
At 1-1 in the 2026 season, the Broncos have shown they can hang around and finish, which matters, but the early-game issues remain hard to ignore. Paytons challenge now is turning those gritty outcomes into more controlled ones, and the next chance comes against the Los Angeles Rams, where Denver will again be looking for a steadier start and a little less drama. [Read more 🡒]