The Denver Broncos have ridden an 11-game win streak that’s turned heads across the league, and for good reason. But while the headlines have praised the defense as the backbone of that run, the numbers - and the film - are starting to tell a different story.
Since Week 11, Denver ranks 29th in defensive EPA per play, per Mike Sando. That’s a steep falloff for a unit that had been playing like one of the league’s toughest.
And if you’re wondering who’s sitting at the top of that list? The Jacksonville Jaguars - the same team that just lit them up.
The cracks in the Broncos’ armor didn’t just show up against Jacksonville. They were already there the week before against Green Bay.
The Packers moved the ball with ease in the first half, carving up the defense with quick passes and efficient runs. Denver tightened up in the red zone and leaned on its pass rush late to close out a 34-26 win, but the warning signs were clear: this defense was bending - and nearly breaking.
Jacksonville took that blueprint and made it look polished. Trevor Lawrence was sharp from the jump, getting the ball out fast and neutralizing Denver’s edge rushers before they could make an impact.
He didn’t just avoid sacks - he made them irrelevant, often escaping pressure and scrambling for positive gains. And when he stayed in the pocket, he consistently found wide-open receivers in the middle of the field - a problem that’s haunted Denver since early in the season.
The tackling didn’t help either. The Broncos' secondary, usually reliable when it comes to wrapping up, had a rough day. Missed tackles turned short gains into chunk plays, and the Jags capitalized, putting up 34 points and keeping the Broncos offense in catch-up mode all afternoon.
There’s also the human element to consider. Eleven straight wins is a grind, and eventually, something gives.
Whether it was fatigue, complacency, or just a bad day, Denver looked out of sync - and they paid for it. One opposing coach, speaking anonymously to Sando, didn’t hold back in questioning the Broncos’ mindset.
“Historically, Denver plays really well at home, so the fact they were not able to close out and actually got punked at home, maybe that tells you they did not take Jacksonville seriously,” the coach said. “The reality is, well, who takes Jacksonville seriously?”
That last part might sting a bit in Duval, but the truth is, Jacksonville has been here before - flashes of brilliance followed by inconsistency. The difference this time?
Lawrence is healthy, the defense is disciplined, and they’re playing with confidence. If they can sustain it, they’re a real threat.
As for Denver, the immediate concern is getting the defense back on track - and fast. They’ll get that chance on Christmas night against a Kansas City team that’s dealing with quarterback injuries of their own. The Chiefs were down to third-stringer Chris Oladokun, and if Denver’s defense can’t find its footing against a backup quarterback in a must-win game, then it’s more than just a bump in the road - it’s a red flag waving loud and clear.
For now, the Broncos still control their destiny. But if they want to be taken seriously as a contender, the defense that powered this win streak needs to reappear - and soon.