The Denver Broncos’ win total is shaping up as one of the more interesting numbers on the board, and the case for the under starts with a rough opening stretch and a quarterback coming off ankle surgery.
Vic Tafur of The Athletic set Denver at under 9.5 wins, a figure that stands out because of Sean Payton’s track record, the addition of Jaylen Waddle and the strength of the roster, especially on defense. Still, Tafur’s thinking is rooted in the idea that the Broncos could stumble early while Bo Nix works his way back from surgery.
That early run is no joke. Denver’s schedule opens with the Kansas City Chiefs, Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Chargers and Seattle Seahawks. Tafur said he was not especially eager to make the pick, which says plenty about how tight the call is.
There’s a strong argument that the Broncos can survive more than that projection suggests. Their defense gives them a real path to wins, and Payton’s ability to adjust should matter over the course of the season. If Nix’s health holds up, it’s difficult to picture Denver finishing below .500.
The Broncos also added a highly-lauded play caller, with Davis Webb in line to handle that role if he actually gets to do it. That gives Denver another reason to believe the offense can be better than the number implies.
The biggest concern is the ground game. Denver did not bring in anyone to challenge oft-injured J.K. Dobbins, and the rookie they drafted, Jonah Coleman, also carries an injury history that could limit what he provides.
If everything breaks right, though, the Broncos have a much higher ceiling than an under 9.5 bet suggests. A healthier Nix could become more mobile as the season goes on, and if the Waddle addition helps make the offense more explosive, Denver could land back in the 11-12 win range despite the tough schedule.
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