The Denver Broncos are back in the Divisional Round spotlight, set to host the Buffalo Bills in a high-stakes matchup on Saturday. A win here not only punches their ticket to the AFC Championship but also guarantees another home game, this time against the winner of Texans vs.
Patriots. The path to Super Bowl LX is starting to take shape - and for Denver, that path runs straight through Buffalo.
Let’s be clear: this isn’t about catching lightning in a bottle. There’s a real, tangible formula for how Denver can win this game.
The Bills are a formidable opponent, no doubt - but Denver has the tools to get it done. Here are the three key pillars to a Broncos victory on Saturday.
1. Keep James Cook in Check - 75 Yards or Less
If you want to understand the heartbeat of Buffalo’s offense right now, look no further than James Cook. The second-year back has quietly become one of the most important pieces in the Bills’ offensive puzzle, especially with their wide receiver corps banged up.
Let’s look at the numbers: In games the Bills have won this season (including the playoffs), Cook has averaged nearly 100 yards per game on the ground with a healthy 5.3 yards per carry. In losses?
That number drops to 75.8 yards per game and 4.6 per carry. That’s not just a stat - that’s a trend, and it’s one Denver’s defense needs to lean into.
The Bills are likely to lean heavily on Cook, possibly giving him upwards of 25 carries, especially if they want to control the tempo and protect Josh Allen from having to do too much through the air. For Denver, the mission is simple: limit explosive runs, win early downs, and get hats to the ball quickly. If they can keep Cook around that 75-yard mark or less, they’ll force Buffalo into a more one-dimensional game plan - and that’s a win for the Broncos.
2. Don’t Let Dalton Kincaid Take Over
With the Bills’ receiving group depleted, rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid has stepped up in a big way - and the numbers are eye-opening. On just 49 targets, he’s hauled in 39 receptions for 571 yards, with only one drop all year.
He’s also racked up 259 yards after the catch and moved the chains 27 times. Oh, and when Josh Allen targets him?
The passer rating is a jaw-dropping 149.2.
That’s elite efficiency, and it makes Kincaid arguably the most dangerous pass-catcher Buffalo has right now.
For Denver’s defense, the key is to treat Kincaid like a top-tier receiving threat - because that’s exactly what he is. Limiting him to under five catches and keeping him from turning short throws into big gains will go a long way in disrupting Buffalo’s rhythm. With the Bills likely leaning on tight ends and the run game, bottling up Kincaid could be the difference between bending and breaking.
3. Start Fast - No More Second-Half Only Offense
This one’s been a recurring theme for Denver all season: slow starts. Too often, the Broncos have waited until the second half to find their offensive rhythm. That kind of script might work against middle-of-the-pack teams, but in the Divisional Round, it’s a recipe for trouble.
The good news? Denver doesn’t need to hang 35 points to win this game.
Somewhere in the 23-24 point range could be enough - but only if they play a full four quarters of complementary football. That means the offense can’t afford to sputter out of the gate.
Sustaining drives early, avoiding three-and-outs, and putting points on the board in the first half will not only ease pressure on the defense but also allow Denver to dictate the flow of the game.
A fast start also opens up the playbook, giving Sean Payton more room to be aggressive and creative with his calls. And let’s face it - when this Broncos team is clicking early, they’re tough to beat.
Bottom Line
This isn’t about pulling off an upset - this is about executing a game plan that Denver is fully capable of delivering. Limit James Cook’s impact on the ground, keep Dalton Kincaid from becoming a safety valve nightmare, and start strong offensively. If the Broncos can check those three boxes, they won’t just beat Buffalo - they’ll be one step closer to the Super Bowl.