The AFC West is shaping up as a two-tier division heading into Week 1, and the opening act comes fast: the Broncos and Chiefs meet in Arrowhead right away.
That matchup matters because Denver enters 2026 with real momentum. The Broncos have won the most regular-season games of any AFC West team since the start of the Bo Nix era, and they’ve gone 2/2 in playoff appearances so far, including a deeper run this past season. A Super Bowl push in 2026 might sound far-fetched to some, but the way this team has trended makes it at least worth entertaining.
Still, the most reasonable forecast has Denver finishing on top of the division at 12-5. Last year’s 14-win season was built on a pile of one-score wins and an 11-game run after a shaky 1-2 start.
That kind of streak is hard to count on again, and shaving a win or two off that total feels like the safer bet. Even at 12 wins, though, the Broncos would still belong in the league’s top tier.
The Chargers come next at 10-7, but there’s a sense of sameness hanging over that roster. Los Angeles did bring in Mike McDaniel as offensive coordinator, yet the interior offensive line remains a problem.
On the other side of the ball, Jesse Minter’s departure to the Baltimore Ravens has not gotten nearly enough attention. When you stack up the additions and losses, this still looks a lot like the same Chargers team from both seasons of the Jim Harbaugh era, and the personnel hasn’t changed enough to suggest a major leap.
Kansas City is projected to take a bigger hit, sliding to 8-9. The Chiefs were only 6-8 in Patrick Mahomes’ 14 starts last season, and the roster questions are still front and center.
The secondary has taken losses with Jaylen Watson, Trent McDuffie, and Bryan Cook all gone, and the front office didn’t address wide receiver. There are still some recognizable names, but Chris Jones and Travis Kelce are getting older, and Mahomes is coming off a major knee injury with no guarantee attached to how he’ll look this year.
There’s also the broader picture: Kansas City is in transition. The roster is one of the youngest in the NFL, but youth doesn’t always mean readiness. A lot of the current starters and top backups simply haven’t proven much yet, which makes the floor feel lower than it has in years.
At the bottom sits Las Vegas at 6-11. Fernando Mendoza could turn into a strong quarterback, but that kind of payoff may take time.
For now, the Raiders are still rebuilding and remain the clear basement team in the division. The outlook could look different by the end of 2026, but until Las Vegas settles the most important position in the sport, a losing record feels like part of the package.
In Other News...
Former Broncos First-Round Picks Death Leaves Family Desperate For Answers
Alphonso Smith Jr., the former Broncos first-round cornerback, died by suicide in Florida on Sept. 2, leaving behind a family that says it has been trying to understand how his life changed in the years after football. Before his death, Smith posted a final message on Facebook describing his struggles with mental health, a painful public glimpse into what those closest to him believe had become a long and worsening decline.
His family now suspects Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy, the degenerative brain disease linked to repeated head impacts, may have played a role in those changes and in the emotional turmoil that followed. They are seeking a brain autopsy to confirm whether CTE was a factor, a step they believe could provide answers in a tragedy that has reopened difficult questions about the long-term toll of the game on former players. [Read more 🡒]
Broncos Hit With A Brutal AFC West Projection After 14-Win Season
After a 14-win season, the Broncos are still drawing a more guarded read from ESPNs Football Power Index as the new year approaches. The model has Denver landing in the middle of the leagues conversation rather than at the top, even though the Broncos finished only 15th in FPI last season despite piling up wins.
A projected step back is part of the picture, and one ESPN simulation was especially harsh, putting Denver at 7-10 and deadlocked with the Raiders for the bottom spot in the AFC West. Across thousands of runs, though, the Broncos settle closer to about 9.2 wins, which leaves plenty of room between a disappointing outcome and the kind of follow-up season that would keep them in the division race. [Read more 🡒]
Broncos May Have A First Round Answer To Their TE Problem
The Broncos tight end room remains one of the cleaner reminders that roster building is never really finished. Denver has some short-term answers on hand, but the position still looks like a place where the front office could keep searching for a bigger long-term piece, especially after the teams recent free agency approach left the group leaning on Evan Engram and Adam Trautman.
That is why Jamari Johnson has started to show up in the conversation as a possible first-round target down the line. The Oregon tight end already has the kind of size and receiving profile that can make evaluators dream on upside, and his college production keeps giving scouts more to work with. If Denver is still looking for a foundational fix at the position, Johnson is the sort of name worth keeping in the back of the notebook. [Read more 🡒]