The Broncos’ 2-2 start has come with a glaring problem: they’ve been buried early in games and managed only 13 first-half points through four weeks. That kind of slow burn is hard to ignore.
Still, there’s a reason that record deserves a second look. Denver hasn’t exactly been easing into the schedule. According to DVOA, the Broncos have played the NFL’s toughest slate through the first four weeks, and no other team has been hit with that kind of opening gauntlet.
That matters because the numbers behind Denver’s start are being shaped by who they’ve faced as much as by what they’ve done. Four weeks in, DVOA is adjusting for opponent strength at 40%, and the Broncos check in 14th overall at 0.6%.
They’re 15th on offense at -2.2%, 14th on defense at -0.7%, and 15th in special teams at 2.1%. In DVOA, negative is better on defense.
The opponent list is brutal. Denver has already seen the top three teams in DVOA: the San Francisco 49ers, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Kansas City Chiefs.
San Francisco sits first overall at 54.8%, with the league’s top offense at 44.6%, fifth-ranked defense at -13.5 %, and 22nd special teams at -3.4%. Jacksonville is second at 40.1%, fourth on offense at 21%, third on defense at 19.4%, and 18th in special teams at -0.2%. Kansas City is third at 25.6%, fifth on offense at 20%, 10th on defense at -5%, and 16th in special teams at 0.6%.
The Los Angeles Rams are in the mix too, ranking seventh overall at 18%, seventh on offense at 13.6%, fourth on defense at -18.9%, and 32nd in special teams at -14.5%. Put it all together, and Denver has already faced four teams that rank in the top 10 overall, top 10 on offense, and top 10 on defense, with three of those teams sitting in the top four in those categories.
So yes, the Broncos have work to do. But the start isn’t empty calories either. They’ve already beaten two top teams, and both wins came at home.
The next four games will tell the next part of the story. Denver gets the Los Angeles Chargers this week, then the Arizona Cardinals, before a short week brings the Seattle Seahawks to town in Week 6 on Thursday Night Football. The Chiefs show up again in Week 8.
Seattle is no easy breath of fresh air, either. The Seahawks are sixth overall in DVOA and have the league’s top defensive DVOA. The Chargers and Cardinals are lower in the rankings - Los Angeles is 31st overall and Arizona is 19th - but they’re still games the Broncos can’t afford to treat casually, especially with both of those road matchups.
If there’s a real silver lining here, it’s simple: Denver has already survived a savage opening stretch and came out with two wins. Now the challenge is turning that into momentum. To give themselves a real shot at the playoffs, they need more than two wins over the next four, and that likely means stealing at least one against either the Seahawks or Chiefs while handling business against the Chargers and Cardinals.
In Other News...
Broncos Finally Get A Chance To Fix Whats Holding This Offense Back
The Broncos have spent the early part of the season fighting for answers on offense, and now they get a chance to make some progress against a Chargers team dealing with plenty of its own problems. Los Angeles is still looking for its first win, and the issues around Jim Harbaugh, Justin Herbert and new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniels system have made that side of the matchup far from clean. For Denver, it is the kind of opponent that can either provide a reset or expose how much work still remains.
After a stretch against stronger competition, the Broncos should see this as an opportunity to finally settle some of the things that have held the offense back. But a winless team can be a dangerous one if it is treated like a soft landing spot, especially in the AFC West where little margin exists for careless football. Denver does not just need the result, it needs proof that the offense can take advantage when the matchup is there. [Read more 🡒]
Marvin Mims' Costly Mistake Has Broncos Fans Asking About Accountability
Marvin Mims spent the aftermath of a rough outing doing what players are supposed to do after a mistake, even if the admission was uncomfortable. The Broncos wide receiver said he did not go back and review the film on the play where he fumbled, and he went so far as to call it possibly his worst NFL game. For a Denver offense still trying to find cleaner execution, the moment landed as another reminder of how thin the margin can be when a key touch turns into a turnover.
The larger conversation around accountability did not stop with Mims, either. Former Broncos linebacker Dre Greenlaw took aim at Sean Payton after the game, and Payton did not push back in his postgame availability, instead responding positively to Greenlaws comments. Meanwhile, across the division, Raiders coach Klint Kubiak was already talking about changing the approach around Ashton Jeanty and Mike Washington, a sign that coaches on both sidelines are feeling the pressure to fix problems before they harden. [Read more 🡒]
Broncos May Need One Eagles Move Before The Trade Market Shifts
Philadelphias roster has already started to look different in the wake of the Cam Jurgens trade, and that kind of movement can reshape the market before the rest of the league catches up. The Eagles are dealing with a changing front as well, with Lane Johnson retired and the club sitting at 2-2, which makes any evaluation of their veteran talent more interesting for teams watching for an opening.
From Denvers side, the name worth tracking is Zack Baun, the inside linebacker who has recently earned both Pro Bowl and first-team All-Pro recognition. His contract is considered movable, and if the Eagles decide to keep adjusting their roster, the Broncos could make sense as a team ready to act before trade talks around the league shift into a more crowded market. [Read more 🡒]