Film Room Focus: Bo Nix’s Deep Ball Growth and Trevor Lawrence’s System Fit Set Stage for Sunday Showdown
When the Broncos and Jaguars square off this Sunday, all eyes will be on the quarterbacks - and for good reason. Bo Nix and Trevor Lawrence are trending in opposite directions in terms of experience, but both are evolving in ways that could define this late-season matchup. The tape tells a compelling story, and it’s one that shows growth, adaptation, and a few warning signs on both sides.
Let’s start in Denver, where Bo Nix is quietly stacking some impressive film. The Broncos’ 34-26 win over the Packers wasn’t just a solid team performance - it was a showcase of how far Nix has come, especially when it comes to pushing the ball downfield.
Earlier this season, Nix struggled on passes traveling more than 10 yards in the air. Through the first 10 weeks, he had the highest rate of off-target throws in that category.
But since Week 11, he’s flipped the script. According to film breakdowns, Nix now ranks third-best in the league in accuracy on those deeper throws, misfiring on just 10.3% of attempts.
That’s not just a stat - it’s a sign of real development. One play that stood out came on a 23-yard touchdown strike to Troy Franklin.
What made it special wasn’t just the throw, but the recognition. Nix read the Packers’ rotating coverage mid-play and found Franklin in the end zone - a spot where he wasn’t initially open.
That kind of processing speed and confidence in his arm? That’s what separates a rookie learning the ropes from one starting to take command of the offense.
Nix’s eyes have also improved. One of the more revealing plays came when he was flushed out of the pocket by Packers pass rusher Micah Parsons.
Instead of bailing or forcing a bad throw, Nix kept his eyes downfield, reversed field, and found Courtland Sutton along the sideline for a clutch first down. That play flipped the field and helped the Broncos claw back from a 23-14 deficit.
It was the kind of moment that doesn’t show up in box scores but speaks volumes on film.
On the other sideline, Trevor Lawrence is starting to look more comfortable in Liam Coen’s offense - and that’s no small thing. After bouncing between systems under Urban Meyer and Doug Pederson, Lawrence is finally in a scheme that’s helping him play faster and more decisively.
Coen’s using motion and creative personnel groupings to spring receivers free - something that’s been missing from Jacksonville’s offense in recent years. One standout play came against the Jets, when Lawrence found running back Bhayshul Tuten for a touchdown, one of five scoring passes he threw that day. It was a clean design and a confident throw, emblematic of what this offense can be when it’s humming.
But it’s not all smooth sailing. Lawrence still has some habits to clean up, especially when the play breaks down.
One area that needs attention? Knowing when to throw the ball away.
It’s a small thing, but against a defense like Denver’s, it could be the difference between punting and coughing up a turnover.
And make no mistake - the Broncos will bring the heat. They didn’t get to Jordan Love much in the first half last week, but that changed quickly after halftime.
This Denver defense is aggressive and unpredictable, and Lawrence hasn’t seen this kind of pressure in a while. How he and Coen adjust in real time will be a major storyline on Sunday.
So what does it all mean heading into this matchup? For Nix, it’s another test - can he keep stacking smart decisions and accurate deep throws against a defense that will be ready for him? For Lawrence, it’s a chance to prove that his recent hot streak isn’t just the product of soft defenses, but a sign that he’s turning the corner in a new system.
Sunday’s game won’t just be about who wins - it’ll be about which quarterback continues to evolve under pressure. And based on what the film shows, both guys are trending in the right direction. Now it’s time to see who takes the next step.