Finland Reignites Rivalry with Sweden, Shakes Up Olympic Group B
When it comes to international hockey rivalries, the Canada-USA showdown gets most of the spotlight. But if you're looking for pure intensity, few matchups deliver like Finland vs.
Sweden. And on Friday, that rivalry gave us another chapter-one that could have major implications for how the rest of the Olympic tournament unfolds.
Just two days after a rough 4-1 loss to Slovakia had some questioning whether Finland was a legitimate contender in these 2026 Winter Games, the Finns responded in a big way. They bounced back by handing Sweden a 4-1 loss in Group B play, a statement win that not only evened their record but also threw the group standings into chaos.
A Short-Handed Spark and a Statement Win
The turning point came in the second period, when Finland was on the penalty kill and looking to protect a narrow lead. That’s when Kings winger Joel Armia stepped up with a short-handed goal that put Finland ahead 3-1-a backbreaker for Sweden and a jolt of confidence for the Finns. Esa Lindell, the Dallas Stars defenseman, got the secondary assist on the play with a smart clearance that set things in motion.
Then, with just 35 seconds left in regulation, Mikko Rantanen-another Dallas Star-sealed the deal with an empty-netter. It was Finland’s fourth of the night and Rantanen’s first goal of the Olympics, a fitting exclamation point for a team that suddenly looks like it’s back on track.
Group B: From Predictable to Wild
Coming into Friday, Sweden looked like the team to beat in Group B. They’d already handled host nation Italy, while Finland had stumbled against Slovakia.
A Swedish win would’ve all but locked up the group. But that’s the thing with Finland-they’re never out of it, and they rarely stay down for long.
Now, with one group-stage game left for each team, the standings are wide open. If Finland beats Italy (as expected) and Sweden takes care of business against Slovakia, we’ll have a three-way tie at 2-1 between Finland, Sweden, and Slovakia. And that’s when things get interesting.
The Goal Differential Game
In a three-way tie scenario, goal differential becomes the key tiebreaker-and right now, Slovakia holds the edge at +4, while Sweden and Finland sit at even. That means both Nordic powers will not only need wins but also need to win big if they want to top the group and claim an automatic bye into the quarterfinals.
Here’s how it breaks down:
- Slovakia: +4 goal differential
- Sweden: 0
- Finland: 0
If Finland handles Italy and Sweden tops Slovakia, all three teams finish with six points. The group winner gets the automatic quarterfinal bye. The second-place team may still have a shot at a bye, depending on how other groups shake out, but it’s far from guaranteed.
If Slovakia wins the group, it likely pushes Sweden-who started strong-into a tougher path through the knockout rounds. That’s a big swing in fortune, all hinging on a few goals here or there.
Semifinal Odds and What’s at Stake
Despite the jumble in Group B, the tournament favorites haven’t changed much. Canada and the U.S. remain the top dogs, with Finland and Sweden right behind.
According to projections, Finland now has a 60% chance of reaching the semifinals, while Sweden sits at 52%. Those are the third- and fourth-best odds in the field, trailing only the North American giants.
But numbers aside, Friday’s result injected real drama into a tournament that had been mostly chalk so far. Finland’s bounce-back performance reminded everyone why they’re a perennial threat on the international stage. And with the group stage winding down, every period, every shift, and every goal is going to matter.
This is Olympic hockey at its best-high-stakes, high-skill, and full of unpredictability. Buckle up.