Dallas has enough going for it to make Vegas’ number look a little stiff.
The Mavericks are coming off a 26-win season that exposed just how fragile things got when Kyrie Irving was out with a torn ACL. Rookie Cooper Flagg was left to carry a thin roster through a long year, and the rebuild around him suddenly looked a lot more uncertain than anyone in Dallas wanted.
Now the picture is different. Irving is on the way back, Flagg is entering Year 2 as the reigning Rookie of the Year after a full development summer, and a new coaching staff and front office have spent the offseason reshaping the roster. There’s real reason for optimism heading into 2026-27, even if the betting market isn’t fully buying in yet.
DraftKings set Dallas’ win total at 35.5, with the Mavericks at +115 to make the play-in tournament and +220 to reach the playoffs outright. Those numbers say more about caution than confidence. A jump of nearly 10 wins from last season would count as progress, but it still leaves Dallas projected in the lower half of a loaded Western Conference.
That skepticism makes sense on some level. This is a young team in Year 2 of the Cooper Flagg era, Dusty May is a first-time NBA head coach, and the front office chose to retool around the edges instead of making one big offseason splash.
The West is crowded, and there’s still rumored work left to do before the roster is finalized. That’s enough for oddsmakers to wait for proof.
Still, the biggest swing factor here is Kyrie Irving.
His absence last season was the main reason Dallas fell apart. Flagg had to shoulder a massive offensive load without a proven initiator beside him, and that kind of burden is a lot to ask from a teenager. Just having Irving back changes the entire shape of the roster, no matter what version of him shows up.
And that matters because even a less-than-full-strength Irving remains a major weapon. He’s still one of the league’s most gifted offensive players, a late-clock shot creator and a player who can take pressure off Flagg in the exact moments a young star needs relief.
The supporting cast got a boost, too. Masai Ujiri added former No. 1 overall pick Zaccharie Risacher for almost nothing and brought in stretch big Santi Aldama and combo guard Marcus Sasser as part of the offseason’s six-team blockbuster. With those pieces alongside a returning core around Flagg, Dallas has more ways to beat a low-30s projection than the odds suggest.
That doesn’t make the under dead. Irving’s injury history is a real concern, Flagg’s leap isn’t guaranteed, and the West can swallow up any team that loses its footing. But the Mavericks also have a clearer path to outperforming Vegas than the market seems willing to admit.
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Mavericks Could Get Pulled Into A Lakers Deal Fans Will Debate
The Lakers have spent the offseason trying to keep building out the front line, adding Walker Kessler and Kevon Looney while continuing to look for more help at big man and power forward. As they sort through depth options, trade chatter around the league has naturally started to reach Dallas, where P.J. Washington remains the kind of versatile forward other teams tend to monitor when they want size, defense and a little lineup flexibility.
Los Angeles has also been talking through ways to restructure its roster, with draft picks and salary-matching pieces in play as it weighs different paths. For the Mavericks, that is the part worth watching, because any serious pursuit could pull Dallas into a deal that changes the shape of the frontcourt market and puts Washington at the center of a conversation fans on both sides will have plenty of opinions about. [Read more 🡒]
Mavericks May Have Found A New Way To Change Everything
Zaccharie Risacher arrives in Dallas as the kind of young swing piece the Mavericks have been looking for, a long, skilled forward whose best trait might be the one you cannot fully measure yet. After his playing time dwindled in Atlanta, the move gives him a fresh start with a staff that has already signaled optimism about his size and the different ways he can fit into a bigger lineup around the roster's core pieces.
For Dallas, the appeal is not just adding another prospect, but imagining how Risacher could grow in an environment built to give him a clearer lane. The Mavericks see the possibility of a taller, more versatile group taking shape, and that is what makes this deal worth watching: the franchise is betting that a change of scenery can unlock something Atlanta never quite found, even if the full outline of that future is still a little hazy. [Read more 🡒]
Mavericks Just Sent A Clear Message About Their Crowded Wings
The Mavericks made their first extension under new team president Masai Ujiri by locking up Naji Marshall on a three-year deal, a move that says plenty about how they view their wing depth. Marshall has been a reliable rotation piece, and for a team trying to sort out its perimeter mix, keeping a dependable veteran in place offers some needed stability.
It also adds another layer to an already crowded part of the roster, where minutes are not going to be easy to come by. Dallas clearly sees value in Marshall as part of that wing rotation, but the bigger question is how the rest of the pieces fit as the Mavericks continue shaping the group around him. [Read more 🡒]