The Mavericks got a better grade in ESPN’s latest preseason forecast, but not enough to escape the league’s skepticism.
In the network’s NBA Summer Forecast released Monday, Dallas was slotted 12th in the Western Conference at 32-50. That would be a six-win step forward from last season’s 26-56 mark, but it still leaves the Mavericks two spots short of the play-in tournament and squarely in the middle of a crowded group the panel doesn’t yet view as dangerous.
The placement says as much as the record projection. Dallas came in behind the Clippers at 33-49 and ahead of Memphis, New Orleans and Sacramento, teams ESPN described as being in the relatively early stages of a franchise reset. In other words, the Mavericks are being treated more like a team on the fringe of the lottery conversation than one ready to push into the West’s upper tier.
That doesn’t mean ESPN ignored the reasons for optimism. The forecast pointed to the front office and coaching shakeup, with Masai Ujiri taking over basketball operations and Dusty May stepping in as coach. It also noted that the Mavericks believe they can be competitive in Cooper Flagg’s second season.
But the biggest offseason addition, according to ESPN, is the player who never actually left: Kyrie Irving. The panel called his return probably the most impactful move of the summer, and that makes sense for a team that ranked 27th in the league in offense last season.
The numbers behind Dallas’ year tell the story. The Mavericks finished with a minus-5.6 net rating overall, but things got much rougher after the trade deadline.
Before that point, they were 19-31 with a minus-2.8 net rating, which means a big chunk of the damage came during a stretch when the roster barely looked like a real NBA rotation. Fixing an offense that poor doesn’t take magic.
It takes shot creation, and that was exactly what Dallas lacked.
There’s also a wider league picture feeding into these projections. LeBron James left the Lakers for Philadelphia, moving one of the West’s biggest names east.
The East, long viewed as the weaker conference, has reloaded around the champion Knicks, and ESPN’s forecast reflects that shift with four Eastern Conference teams projected to win 50 or more games and five at 48 or better. Even last season, the East had more winning teams than the West, 10 to nine.
The West still has Oklahoma City, San Antonio and Denver at the top, but the depth behind them is not what it used to be.
For Dallas, though, the real questions are internal. Irving is coming back from a torn ACL at 34.
Flagg’s sophomore jump could change the shape of the season. And Dusty May’s system will have to hold up over an 82-game schedule after making the leap from college.
So the forecast lands in a pretty clear place: ESPN sees talent in Dallas, but not enough certainty to trust it yet. A six-win bump acknowledges the upgrades without assuming they click right away. That’s a fair read for a team trying to blend a new coach, a new front office direction and a roster that has barely played together.
The Mavericks have spent the summer hearing that they got better, just not enough to matter. That kind of doubt has a way of sticking. And it gives Dallas a pretty clean target for the months ahead.
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Dallas is already looking at a backup guard situation that leans heavily on youth and limited experience, which makes those non-Irving minutes a key pressure point. How well the Mavericks handle those stretches could go a long way toward shaping their season, because the offense and overall stability will depend on whether the second-unit guards can keep things afloat until Irving is back on the floor. [Read more 🡒]