The Dallas Mavericks head into Denver riding the momentum of a gritty 114-110 win over the Clippers - their first victory in five games - and they did it the hard way. Rookie sensation Cooper Flagg erupted for a career-high 35 points, putting on a show that felt like a coming-out party. Klay Thompson, quiet early, caught fire in the second half with 23 points, helping a depleted Mavs squad scratch out a road win that says a lot about their resilience.
But the road doesn’t get any easier. Dallas is still banged up.
Dereck Lively II (foot), Kyrie Irving (knee surgery), and Dante Exum (season-ending) are all out. Daniel Gafford and P.J.
Washington are both nursing ankle injuries and are questionable. So once again, it’s going to be a next-man-up situation for Jason Kidd’s squad.
On the other side, the Nuggets are trying to snap a rare three-game home skid. Denver’s 14-5 record is still strong, but cracks are showing - especially on the defensive end.
Nikola Jokic continues to be Nikola Jokic, averaging a staggering 28.9 points, 12.4 rebounds, and 10.9 assists per game. That’s MVP-level production on a nightly basis.
But with Aaron Gordon (hamstring) and Christian Braun (ankle) sidelined, Denver’s wing depth is thin, and their perimeter defense has taken a hit.
One player stepping into that void is Peyton Watson. He’s not a household name yet, but he’s been quietly effective, especially on the glass and as a help defender. With Gordon out, Watson is in line for another extended run - and he’s making the most of it.
Injury Rundown:
Mavericks:
- Dereck Lively II - OUT (foot)
- Kyrie Irving - OUT (knee surgery)
- Dante Exum - OUT for the season
- Daniel Gafford - DOUBTFUL (ankle)
- P.J.
Washington - QUESTIONABLE (ankle)
- Brandon Williams - QUESTIONABLE (adductor)
Nuggets:
- Aaron Gordon - OUT (hamstring)
- Christian Braun - OUT (ankle)
- Julian Strawther - OUT (back)
- Nikola Jokic - PROBABLE (wrist)
- Anthony Davis - PROBABLE (calf tightness)
Game Outlook & Betting Angles
Spread Lean: Mavericks +10.5
Yes, Dallas is short-handed, but they’re not folding. That Clippers win showed some real grit, and more importantly, it may have unlocked a new gear for Cooper Flagg. With Klay Thompson finding rhythm in the second half and Flagg taking on a larger offensive load, the Mavericks suddenly look more stable than their injury report suggests.
Denver, meanwhile, is missing two of its best perimeter defenders in Gordon and Braun. That weakens their ability to contain wing scorers, which could mean cleaner looks for Klay and even rookie Andrew Nembhard. And don’t forget - Denver’s fourth-quarter defense has looked shaky lately, opening the door for a potential backdoor cover.
Total Lean: Over 232.5
This one has the feel of a track meet. Denver’s recent games have been trending high-scoring, and Dallas just played a 224-point game against the Clippers despite shooting just 28% from deep. That’s telling - the pace is there, and the shot quality is improving.
With Denver’s defense missing key pieces and Dallas leaning heavily on perimeter creation, the over is definitely in play. If Flagg continues to carry a high usage rate and Anthony Davis logs 24-28 minutes, Dallas could bring enough offensive firepower to push this total north of 232.5.
Player Props to Watch
Peyton Watson Over 5.5 Rebounds
With Aaron Gordon out, Watson’s role has expanded - and he’s making his minutes count. His athleticism and nose for the ball give him a real edge on the boards, especially against a Dallas frontcourt that’s missing Lively and potentially Gafford.
If Watson starts again, this line could move quickly. He’s a high-energy guy who crashes from the weak side and isn’t afraid to mix it up inside.
Anthony Davis Over 2.5 Assists
Davis made his return on Friday and looked smooth, putting up 12 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists in just 28 minutes. That’s a strong sign for his playmaking outlook.
Even in limited minutes, Davis has shown he can facilitate from the elbow or off short rolls, especially against teams without a true rim protector - which Dallas is lacking right now. If he gets 26-30 minutes, this assist line feels a touch too low.
Final Word
This matchup might look lopsided on paper, but Dallas is showing signs of life behind Flagg’s breakout and Klay’s resurgence. Denver still has the best player on the floor in Jokic, but their defensive issues and missing wings open the door for a competitive game - and possibly some value on the betting lines. Keep an eye on the injury updates, but don’t be surprised if the Mavericks hang around longer than expected.