The Dallas Mavericks’ offseason overhaul has already nudged expectations upward, but the number on the board still isn’t exactly eye-popping.
ESPN is pointing to DraftKings’ 34.5-win line for Dallas in 2026-27, a modest step up from last season’s 26-56 finish. The pick, though, is still the under at 34.5 (-115), with analyst Eric Moody laying out the case that the Mavericks have work to do before anyone should assume a real jump.
“The Mavericks lack reliable shot creation outside of Irving, whose age and ACL recovery create plenty of uncertainty,” said analyst Eric Moody. “Flagg should improve, but the reigning Rookie of the Year still has a thin supporting cast, while first-year head coach Dusty May faces a steep learning curve. Dallas should improve on last season’s 26 wins, but reaching 36 looks unlikely.”
That outlook comes after a busy summer that changed the shape of the franchise. The Mavericks brought in new president Masai Ujiri, added an experienced scout as general manager, and leaned into a roster build centered on athletic, versatile forwards - the kind of group Ujiri has favored before. Mike Schmitz has also been part of that roster-construction push.
Dusty May now gets the job of sorting out the pieces. Max Christie, P.J.
Washington and Daniel Gafford are back in familiar roles, while Kyrie Irving and Dereck Lively II return from injury. New faces Santi Aldama, Zaccharie Risacher and Marcus Sasser are among the players trying to carve out spots, and No. 9 overall pick Morez Johnson Jr. adds another body to an already crowded frontcourt.
That congestion up front is only part of the puzzle. The bigger hole appears to be in the backcourt behind Irving, where Dallas doesn’t have much established guard play. That could open a lane for rookie Spaniard Sergio De Larrea, who impressed in summer league and may get a real chance to help.
The Mavericks’ offseason has been graded at a B-, and while the roster still looks a little awkward on paper, the direction has been better received by fans than the previous regime’s work. ESPN’s first power rankings place Dallas at No. 23, reflecting a patient approach that has the team positioned better than it was a year ago.
Cooper Flagg, who turns 20 in December, is now the face of the next stage in Dallas. The expectation isn’t a giant leap just yet, but after a 26-win season, even a small turnaround would count as progress.
In Other News...
Mavericks Face An Early Dusty May Test They Cannot Afford To Fail
The Mavericks are heading into the 2026-27 season with little room for a slow start, and the early schedule will say plenty about how ready they are to move past a rough year. Dallas opens with five of its first eight games against playoff teams from the previous season, a stiff opening stretch for a club trying to reset under new head coach Dusty May after a 56-loss campaign that left plenty to clean up.
The context around that early test only adds to the pressure. Kyrie Irvings ACL injury and the trade of Anthony Davis helped define a difficult 2025-26 season, and the Mavericks now have to prove that the new direction can produce something sturdier than last years instability. May does not need October to decide the season, but he does need the team to show signs quickly that another down year is not already taking shape. [Read more 🡒]
Mavericks Face A Real Brandon Williams Problem If He Walks
Dallas has spent the summer trying to make sure its backcourt does not get too thin, and the work has already included bringing in Sergio De Larrea and Marcus Sasser. Those additions give the Mavericks some structure behind the starting group, but they are more about adding options than solving everything at once, especially with Brandon Williams still sitting in unrestricted free agency.
Williams remains the tricky part of the equation because his production from last season is not something Dallas can simply assume will be replaced by committee. The front office is preparing for that possibility, and the concern is not just depth for depths sake, but whether the roster can absorb another loss in a spot where the market has already begun to stir. [Read more 🡒]
Dereck Livelys Return Has Created A Mavericks Problem They Didnt Expect
Dereck Lively IIs road back is already looking more complicated than the Mavericks probably hoped when the offseason began. The young center is recovering from a right foot injury that required two major surgeries, and even with training camp approaching, he is not expected to be fully healthy right away. For Dallas, that creates an unusual holdover from the last roster build: the team has a promising big man working his way back, but not necessarily back into the same role he left.
The wrinkle is that the job may not be waiting for him. Daniel Gafford is still on Dallas roster, which means Livelys return could come with a backup assignment rather than a straightforward slide back into the starting lineup. How quickly he gets there, and whether roster moves change the equation, remains unsettled, leaving the Mavericks to manage both his recovery and the shape of the frontcourt at the same time. [Read more 🡒]