Richard Jefferson thinks the Dallas Mavericks have a real chance to sneak into the Western Conference conversation next season, even if the broader projection still looks modest.
The 2026-27 Mavs are drawing mixed reactions right now. They’ve upgraded the back end of the roster and are set to get Kyrie Irving back from injury, but most sportsbooks still have them around 32 to 35 wins.
That kind of number doesn’t scream breakout. But the West may be soft enough in the middle to give Dallas a path.
At the top, teams like the OKC Thunder and Denver Nuggets have seen their depth trimmed by tax constraints. At the bottom, clubs such as the Utah Jazz and Portland Trail Blazers look improved, but there are still some clear doormats. That leaves a crowded, unsettled middle that includes the Mavs, Jazz, Blazers, Clippers, Warriors, Suns, and maybe even the Lakers.
That’s the opening Jefferson is pointing to. On a recent episode of the "Road Trippin'" podcast, the former Maverick and current ESPN analyst said Dallas could "pop up" in the postseason race.
“Dallas, they could pop up," Jefferson said on a recent episode of the "Road Trippin'" podcast. “…That was the first team I said when it was like, who is a team that’s outside that you could look at, could actually shift some things up.
And again, we’re not saying Dallas is gonna be top six. We’re saying if Dallas was [number] 8 in the play-in and won the first game and were the [number] 7 seed, you wouldn’t be like, ‘Where did this come from?'
“I think Dallas is the one team that has enough talent, high-level talent, that if they’re healthy, things are rolling, you could see them doing something."
That’s the key distinction: Jefferson isn’t calling Dallas a top-six lock. He’s saying the Mavs have enough talent to make noise if things break right, and that a Play-In run wouldn’t be some wild surprise.
With the season still two months away, the roster could still shift. But it looks like the 15-man group they have now is likely the one that matters. Even so, the Mavs still appear to be missing a couple of pieces if they want to be viewed as serious playoff hunters.
They probably need another ball-handler and a point-of-attack defender. Marcus Sasser hasn’t proven he can deliver steady production, and first-round rookie Sergio De Larrea is facing a steep learning curve.
Dallas does have plenty of wing defenders, but there’s a shortage of guards who can handle tougher assignments. Outside of Caleb Martin, the options aren’t especially strong there, and the less the team has to rely on Martin, the better.
So while a top-six finish feels like a stretch, the Play-In path is very much in play. And once you get there, it only takes one or two wins to turn that into a playoff spot.
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Last season offered the blueprint for why Dallas sees him as more than a simple floor stretcher. Aldama took a varied shot diet, got into the paint with real purpose, and showed enough feel as a playmaker to make defenses pay when they overreacted. The broader question now is how quickly that blend of size, touch and decision-making translates into the kind of lineup wrinkle the Mavericks can actually lean on. [Read more 🡒]