Marvin Bagley III has emerged as a key player for the Dallas Mavericks, transforming from a seemingly minor part of the Anthony Davis trade into a consistent performer. However, this rise in value might lead to his departure this summer. Bagley is set to become an unrestricted free agent, and after signing a veteran minimum contract with the Washington Wizards last offseason, he's due for a significant pay raise.
In his first six games with the Mavericks, Bagley has shown he's worth more than his current deal, but retaining him isn't as simple as offering a new contract. The Mavericks face a tricky situation as they aim to build around Cooper Flagg.
Dallas has a few options to keep Bagley: the non-taxpayer mid-level exception, the bi-annual exception, or a contract around $3.7 million. However, Bagley’s market value exceeds $4 million, complicating matters for the Mavericks.
The Mavericks' path to retaining Bagley won't be straightforward
Dallas might consider offering Bagley the bi-annual exception, valued at approximately $5.5 million annually over two years. If Bagley seeks more, the Mavericks will need to make some financial maneuvers.
The Anthony Davis trade opened up the non-taxpayer mid-level exception for Dallas, worth about $15.1 million annually over four years. This allows teams below the first apron to pursue valuable free agents.
Yet, Bagley isn't worth the full MLE, and splitting it might not be wise. Dallas could benefit more from using the full MLE on a single impactful player rather than dividing it between Bagley and another.
Bagley has quickly become the second-best healthy center on the roster, just behind Daniel Gafford. Gafford has been a significant asset since joining Dallas at the 2024 trade deadline, but with an ongoing ankle issue, some fans think trading him and keeping Bagley might be a smart move. Paying over $18 million per year for a backup center is a questionable strategy.
With Dereck Lively II set to start next season, pairing him with a cost-effective option like Bagley would be ideal. Unfortunately, Bagley might price himself out of staying in Dallas.
Currently, Bagley is averaging 13.5 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 0.8 blocks per game while shooting 58.9% from the field. His performance has caught the attention of teams in need of center help. At 26, Bagley excels in rebounding and finishing around the rim, making him a valuable asset for any team seeking a rim roller.
With a month and a half left to impress, Bagley could continue to raise his stock, potentially making him too expensive for the Mavericks to retain. While fans hope for his return, his growing value might lead him elsewhere.