The Dallas Mavericks’ playoff fate next season may come down to one question above all the rest: "Can Irving return to form?"
That was ESPN’s big issue in a recent article, “Dallas Mavericks offseason recap, early 2026-27 season preview,” and it hangs over everything Dallas is trying to build after missing the playoffs in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 2019, Luka Doncic’s rookie year.
Kyrie Irving hasn’t played in an NBA game since March 3, 2025, and the gap between now and his return is exactly why this storyline carries so much weight. Dallas has plenty of young talent around him - Cooper Flagg, Morez Johnson Jr., Max Christie, Zaccharie Risacher, and Dereck Lively II among the names in the mix - but Irving is the player who can swing the entire season one way or the other.
If he comes back looking like the version of himself that tore up the league before the ACL injury in 2025, the Mavericks have a real chance to quiet the noise and force their way into the West’s top six. If he doesn’t, the risk is obvious: another year outside the playoffs.
That’s the concern even from the outside. ESPN’s own betting expert projected Dallas to finish under 34.5 wins next season, despite the team’s busy summer and the overhaul that followed a 26-win campaign.
The stakes are even sharper because Dallas does not control its first-round pick next year.
Before the injury, Irving was performing like one of the best guards in basketball. From the time Doncic was traded in early February 2025 until Irving went down, he put up 26.2 points, 5.4 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.6 steals, and 0.9 blocks per game while shooting 45.2 percent from the field and 95.2 percent from the free-throw line.
That stretch looked like an All-NBA level run, and if he gets back to that standard, Dallas suddenly becomes a very different team. Not a lock to challenge the Oklahoma City Thunder or San Antonio Spurs, but squarely in the conversation with teams like the Houston Rockets and Los Angeles Lakers. Houston and Los Angeles both finished as top-six teams in the West last season, and Dallas, by ESPN’s view, may have had a better offseason than both.
The Mavericks did make notable moves, including trading for Risacher and Santi Aldama and drafting Johnson Jr. and De Larrea. But none of that changes the central truth: Irving’s return is the real headline.
His value goes beyond scoring. He can handle the ball or work off it, create for himself and teammates, direct the offense, and hit open shots. That kind of skill set changes the entire shape of a team, and Dallas badly needs it after last season’s struggles with shot creation, playmaking, and shooting.
If Irving is back to form, the Mavericks have a path to surprising people and getting back to the playoffs. If he isn’t, or if injuries keep interrupting the comeback, the first season of the Dusty May era could get uncomfortable in a hurry.
In Other News...
Cooper Flagg And Kyrie Just Sparked A Mavericks Debate
The Mavericks roster reset has already started to take on a new shape around Cooper Flagg, and a fresh rating from the NBA 2K franchise has only added another layer to the conversation. Flagg, the reigning Rookie of the Year, came in at 87 in the games initial rankings for the upcoming season, which puts him in the same tier as Kyrie Irving as Dallas tries to sort out its next core.
Irving is working his way back from the ACL injury that cost him the 2025-26 season, so the comparison is more than a video-game curiosity for Dallas fans trying to gauge where the franchise stands. The Mavericks also brought in 2024 No. 1 pick Zaccharie Risacher, and with the schedule set to be released Thursday, there will soon be a real glimpse at how this retooled group is expected to be tested. [Read more 🡒]
Mavericks Just Got An Early Reality Check From The NBA
The NBAs 2026-27 opening week national television schedule offered Dallas a clear reminder of where the league sees the Mavericks right now. For the first time since the 2018-19 season, the team was left off every nationally televised game in that opening stretch, a notable absence for a franchise that usually expects at least some stage time when the calendar flips to a new year.
It is an early reality check, especially with plenty of storylines still surrounding the roster and staff. Cooper Flaggs sophomore season, Kyrie Irvings return from injury and Dusty Mays NBA coaching debut all give the Mavericks real intrigue, and the league can always adjust later if the team starts winning and drawing attention. For now, though, Dallas has to work its way back into those showcase windows. [Read more 🡒]