The Texans enter Week 4 in a rough spot, and the pressure is starting to pile up fast. Houston is 0-3 after losses to Buffalo, Cincinnati and Indianapolis, and two of those defeats came as the favorite. That’s a brutal opening stretch, especially for a team that made the AFC playoffs as the No. 5 seed in 2025.
Now the Texans get another tough test at home against Dak Prescott and the Cowboys.
Dallas comes in at 1-2 after a painful finish against Baltimore in Week 3, but the offense has been humming even while the results have lagged. Prescott has thrown for 730 yards, seven touchdowns and one interception while completing 69.5 percent of his passes.
He’s also added 10 carries for 59 yards, and he’s already thrown for more than 275 yards in back-to-back games. Early MVP chatter is attached to him at +1400, and another strong outing in Houston would only strengthen that case.
The contrast for Dallas is clear. The offense is producing at a high level, ranking No. 4 in EPA/Play and No. 7 in success rate through three weeks.
The defense, though, has been a mess. It ranks last in EPA/Play and success rate while giving up 6.0 yards per play, which is why the Cowboys remain such a difficult team to trust.
That defensive weakness does create a path for Houston, at least in theory. The Texans are 19th in EPA/Play on defense and 18th in yards per play allowed at 5.4, so this is not a shutdown unit.
But the bigger question is whether C.J. Stroud and the offense can take advantage.
So far, the answer has been no. Houston sits 21st in EPA/Play and is averaging just 4.8 yards per play, the ninth-fewest in the league.
The run game has been stuck at 3.6 yards per carry, and the offense has had a hard time moving the ball without Nico Collins. If Collins, who is dealing with a hamstring injury, misses a third straight game, that only makes the Texans thinner on the outside.
That’s a problem against a Dallas team that should be able to score. The Texans’ pass defense is 19th in EPA/Pass, and it was already exposed by Josh Allen in Week 1. Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens look like a difficult trio to slow down in Week 4.
Houston has also struggled against the number. The Texans have been favored twice this season and have not covered in any game, including the Week 1 loss to Buffalo as an underdog.
The Bills result was understandable. The last two performances, not so much.
For Dallas, the playoff picture adds another layer. The Cowboys came into the season with hopes of making the postseason in the NFC, but falling to 1-3 would make that path much steeper, especially with the NFC West and NFC North shaping up as divisions that could send multiple teams to the playoffs.
Still, the spread points toward Houston, with the Texans installed as the home favorite.
My lean is Dallas with the points. The Cowboys’ defense has been ugly, but Prescott is playing too well to ignore, and Houston has not shown enough offensive punch to justify being this heavily favored after two shaky weeks.
In Other News...
Cardinals Rookie Back Is Giving Fans A Real Draft Debate
As October arrives, this rookie class is still waiting for a true breakout at quarterback, but the early returns at other spots have been more encouraging. Around the league, a handful of first-year players have already carved out real roles, from Jets tight end Sadiq to Cowboys linebackers Barham and Reese, while running back Jeremiyah Love and linebacker Trotter have also started to make their presence felt for their teams.
For Dallas, the most relevant takeaway is how quickly some of these rookies are forcing coaches and fans to pay attention. The Cowboys have already seen promise from Barham and Reese on defense, and the broader draft conversation is getting harder to ignore as more first-year players keep stacking good weeks. With so many early impressions still forming, the rookie debate is just starting to sharpen for teams that value immediate impact. [Read more 🡒]
Cowboys Face An Early Gut Check As Doubts Start Growing
The Cowboys head into Week 4 with more than just another AFC South test on the schedule. A trip to face the Texans brings injury questions on both sides, but Dallas is dealing with a particularly uneasy situation in its secondary while the offense is also drawing fresh scrutiny over Brian Schottenheimers play-calling.
For a team trying to steady itself early in the season, this is the kind of matchup that can sharpen the conversation fast. Dallas is already managing multiple key absences on defense, and the pressure only grows when the offense does not look as comfortable as it should, making Sunday a useful early measure of where the Cowboys really are. [Read more 🡒]
Jake Ferguson Gets Pulled Into A Relationship Debate Fans Will Have Thoughts On
A little off the field banter has reached Jake Fergusons orbit after Haley Cavinder and Claire Kittle appeared together on a podcast and started comparing relationship styles. The conversation centered on a familiar old issue: whether couples should work through disagreements before going to sleep or let the argument sit until the next day. Claire Kittle made the case for not going to bed angry and keeping the peace with goodnight kisses, while Haley Cavinder said she prefers to sleep on it and revisit things later.
For Cowboys fans, it is one more reminder that Fergusons name keeps popping up beyond the box score during the early part of the 2026 season. He has already been part of Dallas passing game with receptions and receiving yards on the board, while George Kittle has been doing his usual work for San Francisco. The football side of the story is straightforward enough, but the podcast debate gives Ferguson another moment in the spotlight for reasons that have nothing to do with routes, catches or yards. [Read more 🡒]