The Cowboys are drawing plenty of buzz as a 2026 NFC sleeper, but not everybody is buying all the way in.
Dallas has a lot going for it on paper. The offense brings back all 11 starters, including what many see as the league’s best wide receiver tandem and a young offensive line.
Dak Prescott is also coming off a big season and, as the source notes, is the healthiest he’s been in several years. The biggest source of optimism, though, sits on the other side of the ball, where the defense underwent major changes this offseason.
Still, the skepticism hasn’t gone away. After back-to-back seven-win seasons, there’s a pretty obvious reason some analysts are hesitant to jump on the hype train.
The Athletic’s Vic Tafur looked at projected win totals for every team entering 2026, and Dallas landed at 9.5, a number that lines up with most sportsbooks. Tafur’s read is that the Cowboys should clear seven wins, but not quite reach 10.
“If rookie safety Caleb Downs is a star, which is possible, we’re going to lose this one. Same goes if George Pickens isn’t a distraction all season long.
The cornerbacks aren’t very good, and the offense is never as good as it should be. The Cowboys tried to address their defense and will improve on back-to-back seven-win seasons, but let’s not go wild.”
That caution makes even more sense when you look at the schedule. Dallas has to deal with the AFC South and NFC West, and those two divisions combined sent five teams to the playoffs last season. The Cowboys also get early tests against the Ravens and Packers, two teams carrying hefty projected win totals of their own.
And the middle of the season is no picnic either. Dallas will run through a brutal five-week stretch that includes the Eagles, 49ers, Rams, and Seahawks. That run could end up defining the Cowboys’ year.
Even with the warning flags, this is still a more talented roster than the one Dallas rolled out a year ago. Tafur’s point about Caleb Downs matters here: if the rookie safety becomes the kind of difference-maker the Cowboys are hoping for, the defense could change fast. Dallas is clearly counting on him to grow into a superstar, and that development may be the key to speeding up the turnaround.
For now, the Cowboys look like a team with real NFC upside and plenty of reasons for optimism. In about two months, we’ll find out whether that talent translates into wins.
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