Dak Prescott isn’t just playing good football right now - he’s playing MVP-caliber football. And after carving up the Chiefs on Thanksgiving Day in front of a national audience, the conversation around the Cowboys quarterback has officially shifted from “solid season” to “serious contender.”
Just a week ago, Prescott’s MVP odds were buried at +20000 - the kind of long shot that barely registers. But after outdueling Patrick Mahomes on one of the NFL’s biggest stages, those odds have surged to +1200. That’s not just movement; that’s momentum.
And the numbers back it up.
Prescott currently leads the league in adjusted total QBR, a stat that blends efficiency and situational performance - in other words, it tells us who’s really driving winning football. He’s second in passing yards, tied for second in passing touchdowns, and trails only Mahomes in expected points added (EPA), which measures how much a player is contributing to his team’s scoring potential. In short: Prescott isn’t just putting up numbers, he’s elevating the Cowboys’ offense in every way that matters.
Dallas, now 6-5-1, has ripped off three straight wins since their bye week - and they haven’t been soft wins either. They’ve taken down the Eagles and the Chiefs, two of the NFL’s premier teams, and they did it with Prescott at the wheel, playing some of the sharpest football of his career. With another prime-time matchup looming against the Lions on Thursday, the stage is set once again for Prescott to strengthen his MVP case - especially if the Cowboys can keep stacking wins and stay in the thick of the NFC wild-card race.
Still, the road to MVP runs through some serious competition.
Drake Maye is the current frontrunner, and for good reason. He’s led the Patriots to an AFC-best 11-2 record and sits atop the league in passing yards.
He’s also top three in both QBR and EPA, and fourth in passing touchdowns. Maye’s consistency and command of New England’s offense have made him the betting favorite at -125 - and right now, it would take a significant stumble for him to fall out of pole position.
Matthew Stafford is also firmly in the mix. The Rams veteran was the favorite not long ago, but a road loss to the Panthers knocked his stock down a bit. Still, at +130, Stafford remains a legitimate threat to take home the award, especially if the Rams can finish strong.
Then there’s the rest of the field.
Josh Allen, last year’s MVP, opened the season as the favorite to repeat. But the Bills haven’t lived up to expectations, and Allen’s odds have slipped to +2500.
Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, who were right up there with Allen in the preseason projections, have also faded from the race. Mahomes is now sitting at +10000, and Jackson even further out at +25000.
So where does that leave Prescott?
Right in the thick of it. He’s not the favorite, but he’s gone from long shot to legitimate.
And with the Cowboys heating up and more marquee games ahead, there’s still time for him to make a final push. If he keeps playing like this - poised, efficient, and explosive - the MVP conversation is only going to get louder in Dallas.