The Cowboys may have looked like a team wobbling toward the edge after those back-to-back primetime losses, but the picture changes fast when the standings and the playoff math start doing the talking. Dallas is 3-4 after seven weeks, and despite the uneven start, the NFC East remains wide open enough to keep the door cracked.
That reality showed up in the numbers. Before Week 6, the Cowboys had a 41 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to the New York Times playoff simulator. Since then, Dallas has taken a loss to the Packers and bounced back with a win over the Eagles on Monday Night Football, while the Giants pulled off an upset in Houston as 10.5-point underdogs against the Texans.
Even with that messy stretch, the Cowboys’ postseason odds actually improved.
Heading into Week 8, The Athletic’s simulator has Dallas at 44 percent to make the playoffs. The same model gives the Cowboys a 40 percent shot to win the division, while the Giants are slightly ahead at 48 percent to claim the NFC East.
The reason Dallas gained ground is simple enough: the Eagles and Commanders both came up empty in Week 6 and Week 7. Between the two of them, they’ve managed only three wins across the first two months, which keeps them from looking like real threats in the division race.
There’s also a slimmer backup route available. The Cowboys have a 4 percent chance to get into the postseason as a Wild Card team, though that path looks difficult in a crowded NFC. Still, if teams such as the Rams, Packers, and Seahawks keep dropping games, Dallas could stay alive in that lane if it reaches around nine wins.
The next step is obvious: handle the Cardinals.
A win over Arizona would push the Cowboys’ playoff odds to 51 percent, according to the simulator. That number matters even more with the Giants on bye this week and the Eagles and Commanders set to play each other on Sunday Night Football.
A loss would hit hard. Dropping the game to the Cardinals would send Dallas down to a 31 percent chance of making the postseason. It is not a true must-win, but it is close enough to feel like one.
And if the Cowboys do what they’re supposed to do over the next two weeks - beating Arizona and then winning at Indianapolis - the numbers get a lot friendlier. A 5-4 record after nine games would lift their playoff chances to 61 percent.
That doesn’t lock anything in, but it would put Dallas in a strong position entering the second half of the 2026 season. The Eagles win bought them some breathing room, and with a favorable stretch ahead, the Cowboys now have a real chance to turn a rocky start into something much more workable. If they can get to seven wins by Thanksgiving night, they’ll be right in the middle of the playoff chase the rest of the way.
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