Just a couple of weeks ago, the Cowboys were staring down a tough reality. Fresh off their bye, they were 4-5-1, clinging to playoff hopes that sat at just 10%.
But fast forward to now, and the picture’s changed-dramatically. After knocking off the last two Super Bowl champs in just five days, Dallas finds itself at 6-5-1 with playoff odds that have more than doubled to 23%.
Yeah, it’s still a long road, but suddenly, the Cowboys aren’t just playing out the string-they’re in the thick of it.
What’s even more compelling? They’re above .500 for the first time all season and sit just one spot outside the NFC playoff picture, trailing the 7-5 Lions.
And wouldn’t you know it, the Cowboys are headed to Detroit next week. That game’s not just big-it’s potentially season-defining.
A win there could catapult their playoff chances to 41%, just as they head into a two-game homestand. That’s the kind of swing that turns belief into momentum.
Of course, not many people saw this coming. But one guy who never lost faith? Brian Schottenheimer.
The first-year head coach has stuck to his plan and his players, even when the early results weren’t pretty. Remember the calls to fire defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus?
Fans were loud and clear: they wanted change, and fast. At the halfway point, the Cowboys’ defense ranked 31st in the league in EPA per play allowed (0.172).
That’s bottom-of-the-barrel stuff.
But since the bye? It’s been a different story.
In the three games since, the defense has allowed exactly 0.000 EPA/play-good enough for 17th in the league, and that’s with Monday Night Football stats still pending. It’s not elite, but it’s a massive leap.
And it’s come from more than just personnel upgrades.
Eberflus deserves credit for adjusting his scheme to fit his players. He’s leaned more into five-man fronts, using Quinnen Williams alongside Osa Odighizuwa and Kenny Clark to create a disruptive interior trio.
The result? Back-to-back shutouts across four full quarters against two of the league’s most dangerous offenses in the Eagles and Chiefs.
That’s not just a fluke-that’s a defense finding its identity.
And then there’s the offense, which has quietly become one of the league’s most efficient units. Schottenheimer’s promotion to head coach-and his decision to call plays-was met with plenty of skepticism. Critics labeled him a “nepo baby,” questioned his résumé, and doubted whether he could lead a locker room or design a modern offense.
He didn’t listen. He just went to work.
He didn’t get caught up in the noise surrounding George Pickens, either. While some were ready to write off the wideout due to off-field concerns, Pickens has quietly become one of the league’s most efficient receivers.
He just crossed the 1,000-yard mark and is right behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba in passer rating when targeted. That’s elite company.
Same story in the backfield. Plenty of people wrote off Javonte Williams, or questioned why Schottenheimer was giving touches to Malik Davis instead of rookie Jaydon Blue.
But Williams has been a revelation. He’s on the brink of his first 1,000-yard season, ranks fourth in rushing, and is second in the league in yards after contact-trailing only Jonathan Taylor.
He’s been the engine of a ground game that’s kept this offense balanced and efficient.
And then there’s Dak Prescott. The longest-tenured starter in the league came into the season with a target on his back, labeled by some as the most overrated player in football. Some even said the Cowboys’ championship window had slammed shut.
Prescott’s response? He leads the NFL in passing yards and QBR.
He’s top five in EPA per play, CPOE, touchdowns, big-time throws, and passer rating-all while dealing with the third-most dropped passes and sixth-most pressures. That’s not just production-it’s resilience.
What Schottenheimer has done is more than just scheme up a few good game plans. He’s reenergized a team that looked like it was spiraling.
His leadership has brought the locker room together, and his belief in his players has paid off in a big way. The Cowboys aren’t just playing better-they’re playing inspired.
And that belief? It’s contagious.
They’ve beaten the last two Super Bowl winners. They’ve climbed from the bottom third of the league to the playoff conversation.
And now they’ve got a chance to make a real push. Detroit’s next, and the Lions are wobbling.
The opportunity is there.
Why not the Cowboys? Why not now?
That’s the mindset Schottenheimer has instilled. And that’s why, for the first time in a long time, Dallas is a team nobody wants to face.