Cowboys Surge, Chiefs Stumble: What the Latest Playoff Odds Tell Us About Two Franchises Heading in Opposite Directions
If you thought the NFL playoff picture was starting to settle, the Dallas Cowboys just threw a wrench into it-and the Kansas City Chiefs might be feeling the pressure.
Dallas pulled off a statement win over Kansas City, and it wasn’t just any win. They went toe-to-toe with Patrick Mahomes and came out on top.
That’s the kind of result that doesn’t just shift momentum-it reshapes postseason expectations. For the Cowboys, it’s a season-altering victory.
For the Chiefs, it’s a wake-up call.
Just a few weeks ago, it looked like Kansas City had righted the ship with a gritty win over the Colts. Mahomes was playing like himself again, and the defense had found some footing.
But after Thanksgiving, the narrative has changed. Suddenly, the defending AFC champs are staring down the real possibility of missing the playoffs altogether.
Meanwhile, Dallas-once left for dead in the NFC playoff race-is now very much alive. But how real is their shot? Let’s dig into the numbers from three major playoff prediction models to get a clearer picture.
Cowboys: A Pulse, but Still an Uphill Climb
Let’s start with FTN’s DVOA model (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), which gives the Cowboys a 17% chance to make the playoffs. It’s not a golden ticket, but it’s a significant jump from where they stood a few weeks ago. Of that 17%, about 9.5% comes from the possibility of winning the NFC East-an uphill battle, but not impossible.
Over at ESPN, the Football Power Index (FPI) paints a similar picture. They have Dallas at an 18% shot to reach the postseason, with a 10% chance of claiming the division and hosting a Wild Card game.
The Cowboys even get a sliver of a Super Bowl chance here-1%, according to the model. It’s slim, but it’s on the board.
Interestingly, The Athletic’s Austin Mock seems to be the most bullish on Dallas. His model gives the Cowboys a 23% chance of making the playoffs, with a 10% shot at taking the division. That said, their Super Bowl odds remain under 1%, even with the recent hot streak.
So what’s fueling this late-season surge? It’s not just the win over the Chiefs.
Dallas has now beaten both of last season’s Super Bowl participants-the Chiefs and Eagles-and added a convincing win over the Raiders to their résumé. The offense is humming, and the defense is playing with real confidence.
Timing matters in the NFL, and the Cowboys might be catching fire at just the right moment.
Still, it’s fair to ask how much weight we should put on those wins. Both the Chiefs and Eagles have looked shakier than expected this season.
So while the victories are impressive, they might not be the clearest indicators of long-term success. That said, Dallas has put themselves in the conversation, and that’s a big turnaround from where they were a month ago.
Chiefs: Still in the Hunt, But No Longer in Control
Now, let’s talk about Kansas City. The numbers aren’t panic-inducing, but they’re far from reassuring.
FTN’s DVOA model gives the Chiefs a 46.2% chance to make the playoffs. That’s still better than a coin flip, but it’s a far cry from the dominant position they’ve held in recent years.
Their chances of winning the AFC West? Just 2%.
That means their most likely path is as a Wild Card team-and on the road.
ESPN’s FPI is even more cautious. It has Kansas City at 41% to reach the postseason, again with just a 2% shot at winning the division.
If they do make it in, the model gives them a 9% chance to win the Super Bowl. That’s the Mahomes factor-you can’t count him out if he gets in.
The Athletic’s model is the most pessimistic of the three. It has Kansas City’s playoff odds at 37%, with the same 2% chance of taking the division. Even if they sneak into the playoffs, Mock gives them just a 2% shot at hoisting another Lombardi.
So what’s going wrong? For starters, consistency has been elusive.
The offense hasn’t looked like the well-oiled machine we’re used to seeing, and the defense has struggled to hold the line. Mahomes is still Mahomes-he’s doing everything he can-but the margin for error is thinner than it’s been in years.
Add in the Broncos’ resurgence and a crowded AFC Wild Card race, and suddenly the Chiefs are in a dogfight just to stay relevant. This is unfamiliar territory for a team that’s been a postseason fixture and perennial contender.
Still, if there’s one thing we’ve learned over the years, it’s to never fully count out Kansas City. Their championship DNA runs deep, and if they can string together a few wins, they could still be a dangerous team come January.
Final Thoughts: The Road Ahead
For Dallas, the opportunity is there. They’ve got momentum, a few signature wins, and a schedule that could give them a shot. But they’ll need to keep playing near-flawless football to make the leap from hopeful to contender.
As for Kansas City, the margin for error is gone. They’re still in the mix, but the days of coasting into the playoffs are over. Every game from here on out matters-and with Mahomes at the helm, they still have a puncher’s chance.
The playoff picture may be murky, but one thing’s clear: both teams are heading into December with everything on the line. Buckle up.