Four weeks into the season, the Cowboys are sitting at 2-2, and the numbers say their path is still alive - just not exactly comfortable.
Dallas has one thing working in its favor: the offense has been productive enough to keep the team in the conversation. The Cowboys have scored 122 points, tied for second, while the defense has given up 112, which ranks 29th.
That split leaves them with 9.4 Pythagorean projected wins, or 9.2 when adjusted for the games already played. That kind of profile points to a team that can hang around, but also one that needs the defensive side to move in the right direction.
The bigger playoff picture is mixed, too. Since the NFL went to a 17-game schedule in 2020, 63 teams have started 2-2, and 25 of them - 40% - went on to make the playoffs. That’s not a dead end, but it also isn’t a cushion.
Right now, the Cowboys project as the NFC’s final wild-card team. Even so, that spot looks shaky. The safer route is still the NFC East title, especially with the division standings and early projections still in motion.
The rest of the NFC East offers some context for where Dallas stands. The Giants are 3-1 and projected for 9.8 wins.
Philadelphia is 2-2 with a 6.9-win projection. Washington sits at 1-3 and projects to 5.1 wins.
Dallas, at 9.2 projected wins, is in the mix, but not comfortably ahead of anyone.
A look around the league shows just how quickly the picture can change. Buffalo is projected for 10.8 wins, Baltimore for 10.9, Kansas City for 13.5, and San Francisco for 14.7. On the other end, Houston’s 0-4 start has dropped its playoff margin for error to effectively nothing.
The Cowboys’ remaining schedule also looks a little different now than it did before the season. Based on each opponent’s 2025 record, Dallas originally had seven games against teams with double-digit wins.
That number is now down to four. The team’s offseason strength of schedule was ranked 13th-easiest, and based on the projected 2026 wins, it now sits at 9th-easiest.
Here’s the part Dallas can’t ignore: the next stretch matters. The Cowboys have 13 games left, and they need to start collecting wins before the margin gets tighter.
Their upcoming slate includes the Buccaneers, Packers, Eagles, Cardinals, Colts, 49ers, Titans, Eagles again, Seahawks, Rams, Jaguars, Giants, and Commanders, with a bye week in the middle. Based on the projected 2026 win totals, the 49ers, Seahawks, Jaguars, and Packers still loom as the biggest tests, while the schedule overall has eased a bit since opening day.
There’s also the possibility that the defense improves, which would change the math in a hurry. And as the source puts it, who knows how long the Jameis Giants can maintain their little run.
For now, the Cowboys are still in the playoff hunt. But if they want that projection to mean anything, the wins need to start stacking up soon.
In Other News...
Joey Porter Jr. Changed Houstons Entire Plan In Cowboys Debut
Joey Porter Jr. arrived in a Cowboys uniform for Week 4 against the Houston Texans and immediately altered the way Houston approached the passing game. The cornerback, acquired from the Pittsburgh Steelers, logged 24 defensive snaps in his season and Dallas debut, and the Texans quickly showed they wanted little part of testing him in coverage.
Instead of leaning on his side, Houston largely steered its attention toward other Dallas cornerbacks, leaving Porter matched up against the Texans top receiver without a target. He was thrown at once and did not allow a completion, a small sample to be sure, but one that suggested the Cowboys may already have added a defender offenses are going to notice right away. [Read more 🡒]
Texans Let One Cowboys Receiver Take Over When It Mattered Most
CeeDee Lamb made sure the Cowboys left Houston with a win, turning a tight road game into a showcase for Dallas top pass catcher. In a 34-30 victory over the Texans, Lamb piled up 17 catches for 189 yards and a touchdown, the kind of workload that kept Dallas moving when it needed it most and helped deliver the team its second win of the season.
The volume was as striking as the production, with Lambs 17 receptions tying him for the seventh-most in a single NFL game. For a Cowboys offense still looking for consistency, the performance was a reminder of how quickly one receiver can tilt a game when the situation demands it, even if the bigger question is how often Dallas can lean on that kind of night going forward. [Read more 🡒]
CeeDee Lamb Sent A Strong Message On Brian Schottenheimer
CeeDee Lambs afternoon against the Texans already stood out as one of the biggest individual performances of his career, and the timing made it even more meaningful for a Cowboys offense that needed a lift. His 17 catches for 189 yards and the game-winning touchdown helped Dallas escape with a 34-30 victory, a result that offered a much-needed jolt after the frustration of the previous week.
Brian Schottenheimer was part of the backdrop to all of it. The Cowboys offensive coordinator had taken heat after the loss to the Ravens, but Lamb made sure his support was public once the win was in hand. For a Dallas team trying to stack good weeks together, the message mattered almost as much as the result, especially with Tampa Bay waiting on Thursday Night Football. [Read more 🡒]