If the Cowboys are going to get themselves moving in the right direction, the offensive line has to set the tone. And this week, the matchup gives Dallas a real chance to do exactly that against an Indianapolis front that has some obvious cracks.
The numbers on the Cowboys’ line tell the story of a unit that has flashed but not fully settled in yet. Dallas sits at 53% in Pass Block Win Rate, which ranks eighth, but the run game has lagged behind at 69% in Run Block Win Rate, good for 31st.
The group has allowed pressure on 30% of dropbacks, which is 15th, and has given up 11 sacks, tied for fourth-most. The recent trend has been uneven: one step forward, one step back.
The biggest name to watch on the Colts side may not be the one everyone expected. DeForest Buckner is gone after Indianapolis traded the three-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle to San Francisco last week, but that does not mean the middle of the line is suddenly safe for Dallas.
Adetomiwa Adebawore has stepped into a much bigger spotlight, and his season has been strong enough to demand attention. PFF credits him with 16 pressures and five sacks, and his 84.4 pass-rush grade ranks third among qualifying interior defensive linemen.
That is the matchup Dallas cannot afford to miss. Interior pressure changes everything for Dak Prescott.
When an edge rusher gets around Tyler Guyton or Terence Steele, Prescott can often climb the pocket. When Adebawore wins inside, there is no easy escape route.
That puts Tyler Smith, Cooper Beebe and Tyler Booker in the middle of the fight after a rough outing against Arizona.
The tackles also need to answer after that game. Guyton had been playing well before Sunday, then Arizona knocked him off track.
He finished with a 44.7 PFF grade, while Steele posted a 48.2. Four of Dallas’ five starting offensive linemen graded below 50.
Indianapolis does not bring an elite edge rush, but it still has players who can make life hard if Dallas starts slowly again. Laiatu Latu posted an 84.0 PFF grade against Jacksonville and added a sack, and Jaylahn Tuimoloau also had a sack plus four pressures, good for a 22.2% pressure win rate in that game.
Even so, the Colts’ overall pass-rush profile is not intimidating. They rank last in ESPN Pass Rush Win Rate, and that matters if Dallas can keep Guyton and Steele from getting beaten early.
Against Philadelphia, Prescott was barely touched. Against Arizona, he was sacked four times.
The Cowboys need the first version back.
The easiest path for Dallas may be on the ground, especially with Buckner no longer in the picture. Indianapolis has already allowed 1,054 rushing yards, 131.8 rushing yards per game and 4.9 yards per carry.
Its 26% Run Stop Win Rate ranks 29th. Then the Colts traded Buckner, and their first game without him saw Jacksonville run for 183 yards.
That is the kind of opening Dallas should attack.
The Cowboys cannot lean on Prescott to carry everything. Javonte Williams had 24 carries against Arizona but managed just 56 yards, and the blocking never really gave him room.
This week needs to look different. Tyler Smith and Tyler Booker are powerful guards, and Cooper Beebe can work combination blocks with either one.
Dallas should lean into that interior strength and force Indianapolis to prove it can hold up without Buckner.
Even Grover Stewart has not been dominant by the standards Dallas needs to worry about. His PFF run-defense grade is 60.4, which ranks 43rd among qualifying interior defenders. Adebawore has been far more dangerous as a pass rusher than as a run-stopper, so the Cowboys should make both of them defend the run and make the linebackers finish the job against Williams.
The key is patience. Dallas cannot walk away from the run if the first few carries only produce three yards. The Colts have been vulnerable to running games all season, and the Cowboys should keep testing that weakness for four quarters.
The pass-rush numbers for Indianapolis are just as inviting. The Colts have 16 sacks through eight games, which ranks 23rd.
Their Pass Rush Win Rate is 40%, which ranks 32nd. Their Run Stop Win Rate is 27%, ranking 28th.
Their QB Pressure Rate is 21%, also 32nd. The last three weeks have been weak and getting weaker.
That gives Dallas a clear script. If the Colts want to rush four, the Cowboys should trust their five linemen to win and let the rest of the offense work around that. Put the backs and tight ends into routes, force Indianapolis to cover CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Jake Ferguson and the running backs, and make the Colts prove they can generate pressure without extra help.
The best individual battle on the field may come when Tyler Smith lines up across from Adebawore. That is strength against strength.
Adebawore, at 282 pounds, wins with burst and quickness. Smith wins with power.
If Dallas is smart, Smith will get hands on him early in the run game and drive him instead of letting him shoot gaps. That matters beyond the run game, too.
If Adebawore spends the afternoon fighting off Smith’s forward push, he cannot spend every snap attacking Prescott from the inside.
Dallas does not need to overcomplicate this one. The Colts’ numbers point to the same answer: start with the run, use play-action once Indianapolis starts creeping downhill, then trust the tackles against a pass rush that has not been getting the job done.
The Cowboys have already shown what this line can look like at its best. Indianapolis is the chance to prove that the Philadelphia version was real and not just a one-week spike.
Dallas has no new injury concerns among its five starting offensive linemen, though Jake Ferguson is worth watching. If he is limited, Brevyn Spann-Ford could get more involved, and he has been a much better blocker this year. On the Colts’ side, Arden Key remains on injured reserve with a hamstring injury, and Micheal Clemons has also been on IR with a toe injury.
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