As we enter the final four weeks of the 2025 NFL regular season, the Dallas Cowboys are still hanging around the playoff picture - not comfortably, but not out of it either. What once felt like a longshot is now looking more like a narrow path, winding straight through the NFC East. And while the margin for error is razor-thin, the door hasn’t closed just yet.
The Eagles Are Slipping - And That’s Big for Dallas
Let’s start with the obvious: the Philadelphia Eagles are suddenly vulnerable. After dropping three straight, they’re now sitting at 8-5 - just two games ahead of the Cowboys.
Not only are they the closest team to Dallas in the standings, but they’re also the most beatable based on current momentum. The Bears, sitting in the seventh seed at 9-4, have a better overall record than Philly right now, which tells you just how tight the NFC has become.
The Eagles’ recent skid has made them the most realistic target for the Cowboys to leapfrog, especially because they’re the only NFC playoff contender trending in the wrong direction. That’s not to say Dallas can afford to take its eyes off the rest of the conference - far from it - but Philly’s slump gives the Cowboys a glimmer of hope they didn’t have a few weeks ago.
Every Team Is Still Technically in Reach - Even the Top Seed
Technically speaking, no NFC team is completely out of reach for Dallas - not even the 10-3 Rams, who currently hold the top seed. Now, let’s be real: the odds of Los Angeles losing four straight while Dallas wins out are slim to none.
But mathematically, it’s still possible. And that’s what matters right now.
The Cowboys are alive, and as long as the numbers say they’ve got a shot, every game counts - theirs and everyone else’s.
Where Things Stand: NFC Playoff Picture
Here’s a snapshot of the current NFC playoff standings:
- Los Angeles Rams - 10-3 (5-3 in NFC)
- Green Bay Packers - 9-3-1 (7-2-1)
- Philadelphia Eagles - 8-5 (7-3)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 7-6 (5-4)
- Seattle Seahawks - 10-3 (6-3)
- San Francisco 49ers - 9-4 (8-2)
- Chicago Bears - 9-3 (6-2 in NFC)
Detroit Lions - 8-5 (5-4)
9.
Carolina Panthers - 7-6 (5-3)
10.
Dallas Cowboys - 6-6-1 (3-5-1)
Dallas is currently sitting in 10th, but the gap isn’t as wide as it looks. The key is to win out - starting immediately - and hope for a little chaos above them.
The Path Forward: What the Cowboys Need (Besides Winning Out)
Let’s be clear: Dallas can’t afford another loss. That Thursday night defeat to Detroit?
That has to be the last one. A 9-7-1 record might still give them a sliver of hope, but 10-6-1 is the magic number that keeps them in the real conversation.
Even then, they’re going to need help. A lot of it.
Here’s a look at the matchups this week that could shape the Cowboys’ playoff hopes:
Raiders over Eagles
This is the big one. Dallas needs Philly to lose at least two more games, and this is the first shot.
The 2-11 Raiders don’t exactly inspire confidence, but stranger things have happened. Remember, this Eagles core closed out the 2023 season by going 1-5.
When they spiral, they don’t do it halfway.
Vegas showed some fight last week against Denver, and with a veteran QB and coach who aren’t playing for the future, there’s at least a chance they could catch the Eagles napping - especially with Philly looking ahead to a two-game road stretch in Washington and Buffalo.
Still, if we’re being honest, this probably isn’t one of the two losses Dallas is banking on.
Rams over Lions
This one matters more than you might think. Detroit isn’t in a playoff spot right now, but at 8-5, they’re directly in Dallas’ path. The Rams, already at 10 wins, aren’t as relevant to the Cowboys’ chase, but handing the Lions another loss would help clear the logjam near the bottom of the bracket.
Broncos over Packers
This is a must. Green Bay can’t win another game if Dallas wants to pass them.
The Packers hold a tie-breaker edge with a better NFC record, so even if both teams finish with the same number of wins, Dallas would still come up short. The best-case scenario?
Green Bay’s NFC record drops to 7-4-1, while Dallas climbs to 6-5-1. It’s tight, but doable - if the Broncos can pull off the upset.
Browns over Bears
Another long shot, but worth watching. Chicago’s remaining schedule is brutal: Packers, 49ers, and Lions.
If they overlook 3-10 Cleveland, they could stumble. And with Shedeur Sanders now under center for the Browns, there’s at least some potential for a surprise.
If the Bears lose this one, their playoff spot suddenly becomes a lot shakier.
Titans over 49ers
Let’s call this what it is: the longest of long shots. Tennessee looks like a team already eyeing the No. 1 pick in the 2026 Draft, while San Francisco is still pushing for the division title.
But hey, it’s the NFL. Weird things happen on Sundays.
Colts over Seahawks
This one looked a lot more promising before Daniel Jones went down. Without him, Indy’s chances of beating the 10-3 Seahawks - especially in Seattle - take a major hit.
Still, it’s a game worth keeping an eye on. Any loss for a 10-win team helps tighten the race.
Falcons over Buccaneers / Saints over Panthers
This is more about thinning the herd. One of these NFC South teams is going to win the division, but the Cowboys need the runner-up to miss the playoffs. Both Carolina and Tampa Bay are 7-6, so if one of them takes a loss this week - and Dallas handles business against Minnesota - the Cowboys would jump ahead in the standings.
The Bottom Line
The Cowboys don’t control their own destiny - not yet. But they’re not out of the fight either.
The key is simple: win every game from here on out and hope the dominoes fall the right way. They need help from across the league - from the Raiders to the Browns to the Broncos - but the most important piece is still in their own hands.
If Dallas can turn last week’s loss into a wake-up call and stack wins down the stretch, they’ll give themselves a shot. And with the Eagles stumbling, the Bears facing a gauntlet, and the NFC wild-card race as crowded as it’s ever been, this playoff dream isn’t dead.
Not yet.