Week 10 has the New York Giants staring at a swing game that could reshape the NFC East race in a hurry. Thursday night’s matchup with the Washington Commanders isn’t literally “for all the marbles,” but it comes close enough to matter in a major way.
The Giants enter at 5-2-1, and Team Rankings gives them a 69.5% chance to win the division. Dallas sits at 4-5 with a 24.0% shot, while Washington is down at 6.4% at 2-5-1. FanDuel Sportsbook has the Giants as 1.5-point favorites against the Commanders, while the Cowboys are 4.5-point underdogs at home against the 7-1 San Francisco 49ers.
If the Giants take care of business and Dallas loses, the standings would open up fast: New York at 6-2-1, Dallas at 4-6, and Washington at 2-6-1. That would give the Giants a 3½-game cushion. From there, a reasonable 3-5 finish would put them at 9-7-1, while Dallas would need to run the table in a very specific way just to reach 10 wins, which is what they’d need to win the division because the Giants’ tie with Washington counts as half a victory.
If the Giants lose and the Cowboys pull the upset, the picture changes quickly. Dallas would be only 1.5 games back, and Washington would still be alive with eight games left. That’s why this one carries so much weight.
Giants head coach John Harbaugh put it plainly when talking about the Commanders, and the point fits the week as a whole:
“This is for all the marbles. It’s a tie right now.
This is the tiebreaker. It’s like going to the second half tied, you have a chance to go win the game right now and be one up on these guys for the rest of the season.
So, it’s a big game.”
The schedule after Week 10 only adds to the stakes. The Giants get the Jaguars in Week 11, then go to Indianapolis in Week 12, host San Francisco in Week 13, head to Seattle in Week 14, host Cleveland in Week 15, go to Detroit in Week 16, visit Dallas in Week 17, and close with Philadelphia in Week 18. The Cowboys, meanwhile, face Tennessee, Philadelphia, Seattle, a bye, the Rams, Jacksonville, the Giants, and Washington.
One of the biggest football questions Thursday night is how the Giants handle Jayden Daniels when he breaks the pocket. The unscripted quarterback run has been a problem all season, and it burned them badly in Week 5 against Washington when Daniels ripped off touchdown runs of 38 and 26 yards. After that game, defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson said those runs “should never have happened.”
That issue gets trickier because the Giants have leaned heavily on man coverage, which leaves defensive backs without eyes on the quarterback. They have also used a spy only sparingly. Whether they change that approach Thursday night will be worth watching.
The weather could make everything messier, too. The Week 5 meeting in Landover, Md. was already a slop-fest on grass in rainy, miserable conditions. This one is shaping up to be a slop-fest on Field Turf in rainy, miserable, cold conditions.
The National Weather Service forecast for East Rutherford, N.J. calls for rain, a low around 40, north wind at 9 to 11 mph with gusts as high as 23 mph, and an 80% chance of precipitation. It also says between a quarter and half an inch of new precipitation is possible.
That kind of night puts ball security front and center, and the Giants have not exactly been clean there. They fumbled 14 times this season and lost six of them. Only four teams have more fumbles: the Packers, Patriots, Chargers, and Saints, each with 15.
The first meeting with Washington also featured a costly miss from rookie kicker Dominic Zvada, who went 2 of 5 on field-goal attempts and missed from 50, 57, and 46 yards. In weather like this, that history matters.
Then there’s Cam Skattebo, who has plenty of reasons to come in fired up. He already reacted to the Jonathan Taylor trade chatter earlier this week, and the list of fuel for him against Washington is long.
The Giants have been searching for an upgrade from Skattebo as RB1 pretty much since John Harbaugh got the head-coaching job. They were in on Kenneth Walker in free agency, linked to Jeremiyah Love in the draft, aggressively pursued Taylor, and even made a call about Bijan Robinson.
He also missed Sunday’s game against the Philadelphia Eagles, which would have been his return to the place where he suffered his dislocated ankle in 2025. Add in his costly fumble against Washington in Week 5, which led to his pseudo-benching in Week 6, and Thursday night gives him plenty to carry with him.
The Giants could use that edge. They could also use a cleaner night than the one they had the first time these teams met.
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